MLB Weekend Preview + Best Bets !!

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk MLB betting for Saturday and Sunday. The guys also give out best bets.

📌 Key Points (Statistical Takeaways & Betting Angles)

⚾ Chris Paddock fade: Paddock hasn’t passed the 4th inning in either start, giving up 9 and 3 ERs.

📉 Jackson Jobe walk issue: 7 walks in 9 IP across two starts signals command concern.

📈 Christopher Sanchez velocity spike: Up to 97–98 MPH, potentially unsustainable, but promising.

🏡 Guardians’ home record: 57–33 since 2023, undefeated at home this year.

📊 Mikolas vs. Phillies: Cards are 0–4 in Mikolas’ starts vs. PHI since 2023, losing each by multiple runs.

🔥 Jordan Hicks’ early success: 6 shutout innings vs. Astros and 5.1 IP/3 ER vs. Mariners.

💣 Corbin Burns walk issue: 7 BB in 11 IP with 6 ER in two road starts—not vintage Burns.

🌬️ Weather edge in Cleveland & Chicago: Cold temps favor under totals (~40°F, wind in).

🧃 Astros offensive spark: 14 runs on Friday may mark awakening—suspicion persists about pitching.

📦 Roki Sasaki control concern: Great stuff but struggles with location, similar to Yamamoto’s 2024 start.

📚 Summary of Content

[Tigers vs. Twins (0:02–7:01)]

Munaf and Griffin agree Chris Paddock is a fade (ERA over 10 in two starts). Tigers' Jackson Jobe has command issues (7 BB in 9 IP). Lean: Tigers ML + first 5 over.

[Phillies vs. Cardinals (7:03–10:47)]

Sanchez touted for Cy Young by some; rebounding after Dodgers outing. Mikolas has terrible history vs. PHI (0–4, run line failures). Munaf's best bet: Phillies RL.

[Giants vs. Yankees (10:47–14:20)]

Giants lauded for road performance. Yankees’ Will Warren expected to make final start. Hicks solid so far. Lean: Giants ML, Under due to cold/wind.

[Blue Jays vs. Orioles (14:33–18:14)]

Povich has poor history vs. TOR (0–2, 8.38 ERA). Barrios rebounded in last 2 starts. Winds in Camden Yards mild. Leans: Over + Blue Jays ML.

[Nationals vs. Marlins (18:16–21:32)]

Sandy Alcantara hasn't returned to form; 4 BB in last outing. Trevor Williams quietly effective. Lean: Nationals ML + Over 7.5.

[Red Sox vs. White Sox (21:32–24:55)]

Cold Chicago temps favor Under. Fitz surprisingly strong; Perez stellar (1 ER in 12 IP). Lean: White Sox ML + Under.

[Braves vs. Rays (24:57–27:59)]

Rasmussen solid but Braves underdogs? Surprising. Smith-Shawver showing promise. Griffin leans Braves ML. Munaf prefers Under 8.5.

[Royals vs. Guardians (28:00–30:14)]

Lorenzen serviceable, Ortiz vulnerable. Guardians elite at home (63% win rate since 2023). Griffin’s best bet: Guardians ML.

[Angels vs. Astros (30:14–34:29)]

Astros may be waking up offensively. Gusto untested. Tyler Anderson prone to blow-ups. Lean: Over 8.5, slight lean Astros ML.

[Brewers vs. Diamondbacks (37:19–40:50)]

Burns has 7 BB in 2 starts—uncharacteristic. Chad Patrick has impressed. Leans: First 5 Over 4.5, stay away from sides.

[Rockies vs. Padres (40:50–44:53)]

Kyle Hart and Dolander both unproven. Padres offense capable. Lean: Game Over, especially if Padres’ bats wake up.

[Cubs vs. Dodgers (44:53–48:59)]

Dodgers crushed Cubs in Tokyo and now in LA. Ben Brown wild (9 BB in 11 IP). Munaf leans Dodgers TT Over 4.5, Griffin likes Cubs RL.

[Roki Sasaki Forecast (50:43–53:20)]

Griffin expects short outings; control needs work. Fade spots will appear, but risky without clear signals.

[Yamamoto Trend (53:20–54:12)]

Yamamoto now dominating. Reinforces transition curve for Japanese pitchers.

[Rangers vs. Mariners (54:13–56:47)]

Rocker inconsistent; Wu elite at T-Mobile (10–1). Rangers hit Wu hard in past, but game likely Under 7.

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