107th PGA Championship Picks and Predictions

-Discussing top 7 on odds board at Quail Hollow
-1 matchup
-2 picks to place
-2 outrights added to 2 futures on card
-Sleeper, 2 lineups, scoring, best bet

Will Doctor, host of the Golf Preview Podcast, provided a comprehensive breakdown of the 107th PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, North Carolina. The event features 156 players, and the course—known for hosting the Wells Fargo Championship—is now set for its second PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy, with four wins at Quail Hollow and four victories in his last ten starts, is co-favorite at +550 alongside world number one Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy, though powerful off the tee averaging 324 yards at Philly Cricket, only hit 40% of fairways, presenting accuracy concerns. Scheffler, coming off an eight-shot victory at the Nelson, has shown flawless iron play and putting, despite never playing Quail Hollow professionally. Will Doctor endorsed Scheffler as his primary pick at +550.

Justin Thomas, fourth favorite at 22-1, has been exceptional lately with two runner-ups and a win in his last four starts. His strong course history at Quail Hollow, including a 2017 PGA win, positions him as a top contender. Bryson DeChambeau, at +950, recently won at Live Korea, praised for his elite driving and improving short game, though his iron play remains a question. Doctor recommends DeChambeau for a Top 10 finish at +110 but avoids an outright pick. Sepp Straka's victory at Philly Cricket was highlighted by his 60% fairway rate, over 3.5 strokes gained on approach, and best-in-field putting performance. Shane Lowry led the field in approach but faltered with the putter, notably a costly three-putt on the 72nd hole, continuing his winless streak since 2022.

Will Doctor criticized his own picks from the previous event, noting none contended, with Spieth finishing T34, Stevens T23, and Dorby Olson T54. His picks to place last week salvaged some units, including Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood, both closing with 65s, and Andrew Novak with a final round 64 for T17. Quail Hollow, expected to play at 7,600 yards, faces wet conditions from early-week rains, likely favoring bombers and elite chippers, though greens will remain firm due to sub-air systems.

The betting focus includes Justin Thomas over Jon Rahm at +117, McIlroy to Top 5 at even money, and Bryson DeChambeau to Top 10 at +110. Futures on Tyrell Hatton and Sung Jae Im have lost value, with both needing career weeks to contend, particularly Im, whose iron play has struggled all year. The DraftKings lineup features DeChambeau, Thomas, Matsuyama, Novak, Mitchell, and Norgaard, while the PGA.com lineup includes Scheffler (captain), DeChambeau, Thomas, McIlroy, with Mitchell and Novak on the bench.

Keith Mitchell, known for his fast starts but inability to maintain over four rounds, is backed to Top 20 at 3-1. Doctor expects the winning score at 14 under, higher than the 8 under posted by Thomas in 2017 due to softer conditions. His best bet is DeChambeau to Top 10 at +110. He criticized the Live schedule's poor major prep, arguing it hampers players like Rahm more than DeChambeau. Finally, he acknowledged the rain's impact would likely limit firmness to Saturday only, favoring players with distance, elite iron play, and strong short games.

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