ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk.

Friday 28th October 2022

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The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points as expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a widespread expectation that central banks will ‘pivot’, and switch away from a path of higher rate rises. We don’ have long to wait to find out with the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting next week. But is all this pivot talk misplaced? If it’s because of softening data, the Fed has made it clear that inflation will be tackled at whatever cost. For that reason, the employment cost index will be a key number to look out for from the US today. It’s a different story for the ECB, which faces bigger recessionary fears and a mixed inflationary picture across the Euro area. Meanwhile, expect little from the Bank of Japan today, but they will have to make moves to tackle rising inflation at some point.

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