GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution
Doomsayers, a Doomed China, and . . . President McMaster? | GoodFellows: John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and Bill Whalen | Hoover Institution
Sep 7, 2023
In this podcast, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer viewers' questions, discussing topics like China's economic or military tipping point, the reliability of doom mongers, US debt and interest rates, productivity and innovation, US foreign policy towards NATO under a potential Trump presidency, and hypothetical roles in a future President McMaster administration.
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Quick takeaways
- China's economic slowdown and reliance on nationalism could increase the risk of a confrontation with Taiwan.
- The BRICS block primarily aims to establish mechanisms to evade financial sanctions, rather than fundamentally undermine the dollar's dominance.
Deep dives
The Future of China's Economy and US-China Relations
China's economic slowdown and structural problems could increase the risk of China taking aggressive actions. As the Chinese economy slows, the Chinese Communist Party may rely more on nationalism for legitimacy, which could heighten the risk of a confrontation with Taiwan. The US also faces constraints on the economic front, with a growing fiscal deficit that limits its ability to invest in military modernization. The interdependence between the US and China's economies makes a direct war unlikely, but economic tensions and competition continue to pose challenges.
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