Fuel for Thought: Rising Tide of LNG May Become a Glut
Aug 21, 2024
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Fauziah Marzuki, the Global Head of Gas Markets at BNEF, dives into the rapidly changing landscape of liquefied natural gas (LNG). She discusses how a surge in LNG supply could lead to a market glut and examines the pivotal roles of the US and China in global trade. The conversation touches on the impact of sanctions on Russian LNG, introducing the concept of a 'shadow fleet' evading detection. Ultimately, Fauziah explores the implications of shifting energy policies and the need for a balance between gas supply and demand in an evolving economic climate.
The emergence of new LNG projects and geopolitical tensions around Russian gas are creating a complex global market landscape ripe for glut concerns.
China's rising demand for LNG, surpassing Japan, highlights the transition from coal to natural gas in its energy strategy while influencing global supply dynamics.
Deep dives
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The Evolving Global LNG Market
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is becoming increasingly interconnected, breaking away from strictly regional dynamics to adapt to rising demands. Recent developments in LNG trading reveal significant shifts, such as how Europe has become a major importer of LNG due to the energy crisis, prompting adaptations in gas supply routes. Countries like Brazil and emerging Asian markets are also turning to LNG as traditional supplies dwindle, leading to heightened competition and price sensitivity across the globe. This transformation signifies that LNG's mobility on the global stage is reshaping energy consumption patterns and market reactions.
Geopolitical Implications of LNG Supply
Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russian LNG, significantly impact the global energy landscape. Despite sanctions intended to limit Russian gas exports to Europe, Russian LNG still holds a substantial share in the market, contributing to Europe's ongoing energy supply. Sanctions have led to the emergence of a 'shadow fleet' of tankers attempting to circumvent restrictions, creating complex dynamics for pricing and trade. Thus, the interconnectedness of global LNG markets means that changes in one region can produce ripple effects across the entire system.
China's Growing Gas Demand
China's energy market is witnessing a surge in LNG demand, overtaking Japan to become the largest importer. The shift emphasizes China's transition from coal to natural gas as part of its energy strategy, with growing reliance on both domestic production and imports. Despite the dependency on various sources, China's domestic gas supply remains a significant component of its overall consumption, making it somewhat insulated from the fluctuations in international markets. As infrastructure for LNG imports expands, China's LNG demand is expected to increase further as it balances its energy needs with domestic production.
A wave of new liquefied natural gas projects are due to be commissioned by the end of the decade. Yet a sharp increase in supply runs the risk of creating a glut, and with the rise of this transportable commodity, what impacts one market could have a ripple effect around the world.
Today’s show addresses the interplay between global and regional gas markets, with co-hosts Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees joined by Fauziah Marzuki, Global Head of Gas Markets at BNEF. Together, they discuss the role of the US and China in how LNG moves around the globe, how shifting policies and net-zero goals are impacting the outlook for natural gas, and the ‘shadow fleet’ that recently departed sanctioned LNG terminals in Russia. The show draws upon BNEF research including Global LNG Market Outlook 2030: Focus on Supply Risks and Global LNG Supply Outlook 2030: Second US Wave Incoming.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com