Finance professor Alex Edmans discusses the mispricing of carbon transition risk in markets, highlighting how high emitters may be outperforming. The conversation explores the complexities of balancing social good with shareholder returns in ESG investments and the challenges faced by long-term investors in driving decarbonization efforts.
Mispricing of transition risk in emitting stocks leads to potential investment advantages without corresponding risks.
Investors struggle to align short-term financial gains with long-term negative externalities from climate risks, emphasizing the need for balancing economic returns with societal impact.
Deep dives
The Concept of Carbon Premium in Financial Markets
The carbon premium refers to the phenomenon where stocks emitting more carbon yield higher returns than low-emission stocks. This premium can be interpreted in two ways: as compensation for higher risk due to potential carbon taxes, or as a result of outperformance where emitting stocks have higher profitability. Insufficient pricing of carbon transition risk could lead to significant impacts, suggesting that emitting stocks might not be riskier but rather offer higher returns.
Challenges in Pricing Climate Transition Risk
Existing evidence does not indicate that climate transition risk has been appropriately priced in financial markets. While some studies suggest high returns from emitting stocks are due to risk, alternative interpretations, focusing on outperformance, challenge this view. Mispricing is significant, as seen in higher earnings and stock price rises for emitting companies, indicating potential investment advantages without corresponding risks.
Factors Contributing to Persistent Mispricing
Persistent mispricing of emitting companies is attributed to the lack of accountability for climate externalities. Companies benefit from higher earnings due to inadequate investment in carbon abatement, enabling them to outperform without incurring expected risks. The challenge lies in addressing the disconnect between economic gains and environmental impacts, where market dynamics fail to reflect the true costs of climate risks.
Balancing Financial Returns and Environmental Responsibility
The discussion revolves around the necessity for investors to align financial goals with environmental responsibility. The dilemma arises in evaluating trade-offs between short-term financial gains and long-term negative externalities from climate risks. While there is a push for fully internalizing environmental value into financial assessments, practical challenges exist in quantifying and balancing the complex interplay between economic returns and societal impact.
Are markets acting efficiently when they price carbon risk? Alex Edmans talks to Alissa Kleinnijenhuis and Tim Phillips about how the earnings announcements of high emitters suggest mispricing of transition risk and argues that we should think of ESG is both extremely important – and nothing special.
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