Less Noise, More Signal Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possible
Sep 25, 2025
Willy Woo, a leading crypto on-chain analyst, shares his insights on Bitcoin's market dynamics and the importance of liquidity. He discusses the possibility of an 80% drawdown due to macroeconomic risks and explains Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. Willy highlights the tension between decentralization and centralized treasury companies while exploring Bitcoin's potential as collateral. He also emphasizes the significance of on-chain data in understanding investor behavior and the current fragility of price rallies.
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From Engineer To On-Chain Analyst
- Willy described his path from engineer to on-chain analyst and hedge fund manager since 2013.
- He now partners with SwissBlock and Glassnode to deliver market intelligence products.
Two Cycles Drive Bitcoin
- Bitcoin cycles reflect a superposition of its halving supply shocks and global liquidity cycles from central banks.
- The halving impulse is weakening over time as Bitcoin inflation approaches gold-like levels.
Why Bears Matter For Builders
- Bear markets let builders recharge and develop products away from bull-market frenzy.
- Willy expects a bear market ahead because markets don't go up forever and current liquidity structure looks late-cycle.
