#13 – Kevin Kelly: How Technology Evolves, And What To Do About It
Dec 19, 2024
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Kevin Kelly, a tech expert and founding editor of Wired magazine, dives into the fascinating realms of technology evolution and its societal impacts. He discusses the scaling laws that shape technological progress and their connection to biology and policy. The conversation emphasizes trust in network economies and how it influences technology adoption, particularly with AI. Kelly also advocates for adaptive regulations to tackle the complexities of emerging technologies, underscoring their inevitable integration into everyday life as we approach 2025.
Technology evolves similarly to biological systems, driven by inevitability, contingency, and adaptation according to the triad of evolution.
Establishing trust is crucial for the adoption of new technologies, yet regaining trust once lost presents a significant ongoing challenge.
Deep dives
Technology and Biology: The Triad of Evolution
The relationship between technology and biology is examined through the concept of the triad of evolution, which includes inevitability, contingency, and adaptation. The discussion emphasizes how technology operates similarly to biological systems, suggesting that technology evolves based on certain inevitable trends and external influences. For instance, the development of complex technologies, referred to as the 'technium,' demonstrates interdependence, where tools and innovations build upon one another, much like evolutionary processes in nature. This perspective shifts the focus from mere inventions to understanding the broader dynamics that shape technological evolution.
Convergence and the Inverted Pyramid of Invention
The phenomenon of convergence illustrates how different technologies can emerge independently and simultaneously in various locations, reinforcing the idea that simultaneous independent invention is common rather than rare. Examples such as Darwin and Wallace's similar theories of evolution, along with concurrent inventions of ink printers by different companies, highlight this pattern. The concept is further illustrated using the inverted pyramid of invention, which suggests that from thousands of ideas, only a handful make it to actual adoption, making the ability to successfully adopt a crucial factor. This implies that rather than merely merging for ideas, companies should focus on adoption capabilities, emphasizing the complex processes involved in bringing inventions to fruition.
Understanding Trust in Technological Adoption
Trust emerges as a fundamental element in the successful adoption of new technologies, as indicated in earlier works that outline network economics. Various techniques have been observed in establishing trust, including limited supply in Bitcoin and user ratings in platforms like Uber. However, a general theory of trust remains elusive, especially in the context of rapidly evolving AI technologies. The enduring challenge lies in regaining trust once it has been lost, particularly in the wake of regulatory developments and societal implications surrounding technology and its perceived reliability.
My guest today is Kevin Kelly, the author of 14 books, a public speaker who has delivered TED talks with tens of millions of views, and a technology expert. In 1983, Kevin was hired by Whole Earth founder Stewart Brand to edit several later editions of the Whole Earth Catalog, the Whole Earth Review, and Signal. He later on served as the founding executive editor of the magazine Wired.
In our conversation, Kevin and I talk about the scaling laws behind all technologies, but also how these laws intersect with biology, society, and policy. We explore themes from What Technology Wants, we focus on the 'Triad of Evolution' and the concept of convergence, and connect these ideas to antitrust and innovation policy. I also touch on his earlier work, including New Rules for the New Economy, where we discuss the dynamics of trust in network economies and its implications for technology adoption. Finally, we delve into the inevitability of technological evolution, its accelerating diffusion, and what happens when technology becomes ubiquitous in society. These questions feel increasingly urgent as we approach 2025, a pivotal moment for revisiting these ideas in light of modern developments. I hope you enjoy our discussion.