Scaling Theory

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. My guest today is Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of economics at George Mason University. Robin has long been one of the most original thinkers on institutional design, collective intelligence, as explored in his books The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain. Across his career, he has pushed the boundaries of how societies can aggregate knowledge and make collective decisions when complexity scales faster than comprehension.In this episode, Robin and I discuss how futarchy could scale that logic across our societies? As societies grow larger, representation, information, and incentives all begin to break down, and futarchy is one possible way to rebuild them. Robin and I talk about where this idea has been tested so far, what a real-world implementation might look like in a city or company, and why, despite its promise, futarchy hasn’t yet scaled.Finally, we explore how new technologies like blockchain and AI might change the picture, whether they’ll make futarchy more viable, or perhaps even replace parts of it. And we look ahead to Robin’s vision from The Age of Em. When societies become unimaginably fast and complex, which human institutions survive, and which ones don’t?You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).

This is the first solo episode of Scaling Theory, where I take a deep dive into the literature. Building on a working paper titled “Adaptive Regulation,” I explore why “future-proof” laws so often fail in the face of rapid technological change, and how complexity science can guide us toward rules that adapt to the things they regulate. Drawing on recent EU digital acts and voices from law, economics, and complexity theory, I sketch the contours of a regulatory system that scales.You can follow me on X (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠).References:Schrepel, T., Adaptive Regulation (2025) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5416454Ranchordás, S., & Van‘t Schip, M. (2020). Future-Proofing Legislation for the Digital Age. In Time, Law, and Change: An Interdisciplinary Study.Colomo, P. I. (2022). Future-Proof Regulation against the Test of Time: The Evolution of European Telecommunications Regulation. Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, 42(4).Chander, A. (2017). Future-proofing law. UC Davis Law Review.Powell, W. W., & Snellman, K. (2004). The Knowledge Economy. Annual Review of Sociology, 30.Perez, C. (2009). The Double Bubble at the Turn of the Century: Technological Roots and Structural Implications. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 779–805.Allen, D. W., Berg, C., & Potts, J. (2025). Institutional Acceleration: The Consequences of Technological Change in a Digital Economy. Cambridge University Press.Colander, D., Holt, R. P. F., & Rosser, J. B. (2004). The Changing Face of Mainstream Economics. Review of Political Economy, 16(4).Arthur, W. B. (2009). The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. New York: Free Press.Buchanan, J. M., & Tullock, G. (1962). The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. University of Michigan Press.Sowell, T. (2007). A Conflict of Visions: Ideological Origins of Political Struggles.West, G. (2017). Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies. Penguin Press.

My guest today is Vinton G. Cerf, widely regarded as a “father of the Internet.” In the 1970s, Vint co-developed the TCP/IP protocols that define how data is formatted, transmitted, and received across devices. In essence, his work enabled networks to communicate, thus laying the foundation for the Internet as a unified global system. He has received honorary degrees and awards that include the National Medal of Technology, the Turing Award, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the Marconi Prize, and membership in the National Academy of Engineering. He is currently Chief Internet Evangelist at Google.In this episode, Vint reflects on the Internet’s path from ARPANET and TCP/IP to the scaling choices that made global connectivity possible. He explains why decentralization was key, and how fiber optics and data centers underwrote explosive growth. Vint also addresses today’s policy anxieties (fragmentation, sovereignty walls, and fragile infrastructures…) before looking upward to the interplanetary Internet now linking spacecraft. Finally, we turn to AI: how LLMs are reshaping learning and software, and why the next leap may be systems that question us back. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠).

Melanie Moses, a Professor of Computer Science at the University of New Mexico and Chair of the New Mexico AI Consortium, dives deep into the fascinating interplay of scaling theory in nature and technology. She reveals how decentralized systems like ant colonies can inform robust AI design. The discussion also highlights the costs of scalable infrastructure and advocates for innovative governance to address global challenges. Furthermore, Melanie examines the potential of biological principles in fostering collaboration and efficiency in AI, all while encouraging interdisciplinary research.

Melanie Mitchell, a Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and author, dives into the complexities of intelligence in her conversation. She challenges misconceptions about AI's capabilities, critiquing traditional measures like the Turing Test. The discussion highlights 'jagged intelligence' and how biological insights can inspire more adaptable AI systems. Melanie also emphasizes the importance of metacognition in AI and explores the concept of emergence in complexity science, advocating for a more decentralized approach to developing truly intelligent machines.

Welcome back to Scaling Theory. Today, we are taking on a surprising but deeply relevant topic: religion. We are not entering the realm of theology, but rather looking at religion the way an economist might look at a multinational corporation or a digital platform. Think of it this way: in the U.S. alone, faith-based organizations generate more annual revenue than Apple and Microsoft combined. So when we ask how religions scale, we are really asking how some of the world’s most enduring (and powerful) institutions grow, adapt, and persist.Our guest is Paul Seabright, Professor of Economics at the Toulouse School of Economics and author of The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete for Wealth, Power, and People.Paul and I talk about how religions scale, why rituals, doctrines, and compelling narratives matter for growth. We explore how religions act as multi-sided platforms, how they build robust networks that resist churn, and how technologies like the printing press and social media can reshape their reach. Toward the end, we explore whether new movements in the Silicon Valley function like new religions, and what their chances of success might be in today’s competitive market for belief. I hope you enjoy our discussion.You can follow me on X (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) and BlueSky (@⁠ProfSchrepel⁠) to receive regular updates.

In this engaging discussion, James Evans, a Professor of Sociology and Computational Science at the University of Chicago, shares insights on how AI is transforming research methodologies. He explores the potential and pitfalls of using large language models to simulate human behavior, highlighting their impact on social dynamics and policy-making. The conversation delves into the future of research collaborations, emphasizing the importance of small teams and interdisciplinary innovation. Evans also reflects on the philosophical implications of viewing humanity as part of a grand experiment.

In this engaging discussion, Eric von Hippel, a renowned Professor of Technological Innovation at MIT, delves into the world of free innovation, where consumers create solutions out of necessity. He shares inspiring examples, like innovative insulin methods by parents and the evolution of mountain biking. Eric emphasizes the importance of altruism in driving innovation and the need to rethink intellectual property laws, especially with AI’s rise. The conversation also highlights how user-driven creativity can shape future technological landscapes and societal benefits.

David Krakauer, President and a leading researcher at the Santa Fe Institute, dives deep into the evolution of life and intelligence. He discusses the transformative paradigm of complexity science and its implications for AI and machine learning. Krakauer highlights the unique interdisciplinary approach at the Santa Fe Institute that fosters innovation. He also explores the nuances of artificial general intelligence and the creative connections that emerge across various fields. Expect thought-provoking insights on intelligence and complexity!

Larry Lessig, a Harvard Law professor and author of 'Code 2.0', discusses his influential 'pathetic dot theory' and its four constraints: law, economics, norms, and architecture. He explores how these factors shape the digital economy. The conversation highlights the clash between tech innovation and existing regulations and questions the efficacy of current U.S. policies. Lessig also dives into the role of complexity science in regulation and the challenges of balancing open-source AI development with effective governance.