It Feels Like 1999 (EP. 433)

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Oct 8, 2025

Dive into the chaotic world of the AI boom, where speculation feels eerily reminiscent of 1999. The hosts explore the bubble surrounding AI investments and the gap between the elite 1% and the struggling 90%. They discuss the intriguing performance of international stocks and the frenzy of retail investors chasing low-quality junk stocks. Amidst the financial talk, lighter moments emerge with reflections on Taylor Swift and family life, blending entertainment with candid insights into current market dynamics.

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INSIGHT

AI Mania Feels Like A Once-In-Age Market Event

AI mania feels like a historic market event comparable to 1999 and could be the defining story of the decade.
No one can reliably time the top, and a blow-off phase can persist longer than intuition suggests.

insights

INSIGHT

Retail And Junk Stocks Are Dominating The Rally

Retail and junk-stock mania drive extreme short squeezes and speculative rallies in unprofitable companies.
Shorts get forced out quickly in these environments, leaving long holders to capture outsized gains until a reversal.

insights

INSIGHT

Narrow Leadership Masks Market Risk

Market breadth is narrow: a handful of large names have driven recent S&P gains similar to past market tops.
Cap-weighted valuations diverge from equal-weighted metrics, signaling concentrated leadership risk.

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OpenAI–AMD Announcement and Hyperscaler Mania

02:01 • 2min

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Is This a 1999-Style Blow-Off Top?

04:28 • 3min

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How Will the AI Bubble End?

07:07 • 2min

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AI CapEx, Hyperscaler Spending, and Economic Impact

09:21 • 3min

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Can the Market Call the Peak in Earnings?

12:39 • 2min

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Concentration of Top Stocks and Valuation Divergence

14:21 • 4min

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International Stocks Outperforming U.S.

18:13 • 1min

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Are Everyday Investors Missing from the AI Mania?

19:15 • 3min

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Retail Frenzy: Shorted Names and Call-Volume Moves

21:50 • 2min

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Wealth Creation, Capital Gains, and Inequality Concerns

23:31 • 2min

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What Would Prove This Is a Bubble?

25:50 • 2min

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Credit Spreads, Junk Demand, and Lending Risk

28:19 • 2min

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Top 1% Wealth Share and Political Risks

29:58 • 3min

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Taylor Swift, Pop Culture, and Positivity

33:02 • 58sec

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Why Tariff Exemptions Matter for AI Investment

34:00 • 1min

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AR/VR Hardware, Vision Pro, and Privacy Concerns

35:10 • 2min

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Peter Lynch Interview Takeaways and Costco Valuation Puzzle

37:14 • 3min

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OpenDoor, Housing Tech Skepticism, and Scalability

40:09 • 2min

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Housing Market Normalizing but Rate‑Dependent

41:42 • 2min

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Age of Housing Stock and Renovation Demand

43:27 • 52sec

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Private Markets Growth, Dry Powder, and Early Warnings

44:20 • 5min

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Social Costs of Sports Betting and Usage Statistics

49:44 • 3min

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Billionaire Spending Habits and Generosity as Strategy

52:23 • 2min

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Buy Now, Pay Later Usage for Essentials

54:16 • 1min

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Time Spent on Social Media Is Declining — Why It Matters

55:42 • 3min

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Family Life, Youth Sports, and Graduating Parenting Stages

58:55 • 5min

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Travel, Disney Plans, and Practical Family Tips

01:03:54 • 1min

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Horror Picks, F1 Movie and Entertainment Recos

01:05:13 • 5min

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Final Thoughts on AI Mania and Promise to Be Positive

• Mentioned in 26 episodes

This book provides an unprecedented view into the development of *Hamilton*, from its conception to its landmark opening night on Broadway. It includes the full libretto of the musical, photographs, interviews with key figures involved in the production, and over 200 footnotes by Lin-Manuel Miranda. The book also features contributions from Questlove, Stephen Sondheim, and President Obama, among others, and offers insights into the artistic process and the historical context of the musical.

#1592

• Mentioned in 19 episodes

The Art of Spending Money

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Morgan Housel

Morgan Housel's "The Art of Spending Money" delves into the psychology of financial decisions, exploring how our emotions and biases influence our spending habits. The book challenges conventional wisdom about saving and investing, emphasizing the importance of aligning our financial goals with our values and life experiences. Housel uses compelling narratives and real-world examples to illustrate the complexities of money management, offering practical insights for readers of all financial backgrounds. The book encourages readers to develop a more mindful and intentional approach to spending, helping them make choices that enhance their overall well-being. Ultimately, it aims to empower readers to make informed financial decisions that lead to a more fulfilling life.

On episode 433 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss the melt-up phase of the AI boom, there is a bubble in bubble predictions, no one is going to call the top, hyperscalers vs. the labor market, international stocks are outperforming, Taylor Swift, junk stocks, the top 1% vs. the bottom 90% and more.

This episode is sponsored by Betterment Advisor Solutions and Vanguard.

Grow your RIA, your way by visiting: https://Betterment.com/advisors

Learn more about Vanguard at: https://www.vanguard.com/audio

Find complete show notes on our blogs:

Ben Carlson’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Michael Batnick’s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.

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