China Considered From Beijing to Washington: China's Economy with Oliver Melton | China Considered | Hoover Institution
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Sep 18, 2025 Oliver Melton, Director at the Rhodium Group and former U.S. Treasury financial attache in Beijing, shares his on-the-ground insights into China's economy. He highlights the structural imbalances causing economic strife, such as the real estate crash and over-reliance on investment. Melton reviews significant initiatives like the Belt and Road, which is shifting focus towards targeted investments, and China's de-dollarization strategy. He emphasizes the necessity of international coordination for effective responses to China's industrial policies, indicating that unilateral actions may fall short.
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Day Job In Beijing
- Oliver Melton described split duties as Treasury financial attache: analyst in the field and diplomat facilitating high-level communication.
- He traveled widely, met economists, developers, and reported on leadership thinking to Washington.
Beijing Isn't Representative
- Beijing is an isolated, service-heavy slice of China's diverse economy and masks national variation.
- Understanding China requires reading party communiqués and mapping institutional power, not just surface data.
Property Policy Backfired
- China successfully halted speculative property finance but then engineered a near collapse of the sector.
- Attempts to restart financing stalled because banks feared future accountability and corrupt-investigation risks.
