Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at CSIS's Middle East program and a Syria expert, delves into the precarious state of the Assad regime. She unpacks the internal rifts among militia groups and the shifting power dynamics influenced by external actors like Russia and Iran. The discussion spotlights the pivotal rebel groups and their strategies, as well as the pressing humanitarian issues faced by civilians, particularly women. Hall calls for increased international support to navigate the complexities of Syria’s recovery and leadership challenges.
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime revealed its heavy reliance on foreign support and internal divisions among its forces.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's strategic shift towards moderate governance demonstrates both potential progress and ongoing challenges in Syria's complex power dynamics.
Deep dives
The Fall of the Assad Regime
The Assad regime's collapse was unexpected and swift, revealing its dependence on external support from powers like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Internal strife and incompetence, coupled with external pressures, made the regime's downfall possible as previously unrecognized rebel groups capitalized on the situation. The rapid dismantling of regime forces, aided by sleeper cells, resulted in a cascade effect, igniting further rebellions within Syria. The transformation from apparent stability to a surprising regime collapse has now raised questions about the future governance of the country.
Emergence of HTS as a Major Force
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has evolved into a significant player amidst the chaos of the Syrian conflict, distancing itself from its radical roots. Al-Jolani's leadership has attempted to reassure the populace by maintaining local governance structures and showing willingness to incorporate defectors from the regime. Despite his controversial history, HTS appears to be strategically moderate, especially in its handling of religious and ethnic diversity in areas it controls. This nuanced approach raises both optimism and concern regarding how HTS will navigate internal and external political pressures.
Humanitarian and International Response
The situation on the ground demands urgent international humanitarian assistance as many displaced individuals face dire conditions, especially with winter approaching. The lack of funding for humanitarian appeals further exacerbates the crisis, necessitating collaboration between the international community and Gulf states to aid returning populations. The need for stability in northern Syria and ongoing support for the Syrian Democratic Forces are critical to preventing a resurgence of violence and chaos. Engaging with local governance and ensuring equitable treatment for minorities will be essential in shaping a more stable future for Syria.
CSIS’s Natasha Hall joins the podcast to discuss the rot inside the Assad regime, the country’s new power center and the internal tensions that remain.
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