Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

#101 EU Defence Chief: “We Need a European Army. This Is What Happens If the US Takes Greenland” | Andrius Kubilius

Jan 10, 2026

Andrius Kubilius, the first-ever EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, discusses the urgent need for a cohesive European defense strategy. He outlines three pillars for readiness: material, institutional, and political, stressing the importance of reforming Europe's fragmented defense industry. Kubilius argues for a European army amid shifting US focus to the Indo-Pacific and highlights the necessity of replacing US strategic capabilities. He emphasizes growing political will in Europe for stronger self-reliance and the need for dialogue with the US.

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INSIGHT

Three Pillars Of Defense Readiness

Defense readiness rests on three pillars: material, institutional, and political readiness.
Andrius Kubilius argues Europe must address industry, organization, and political will together to be truly prepared.

INSIGHT

Prepare For Less US Presence

Europe cannot rely indefinitely on US forces and must plan to replace strategic enablers and a backbone force.
Kubilius says institutional change is required to overcome fragmented national militaries and industries.

ADVICE

Use A Smaller Forum To Reach Decisions

Create a focused forum to make binding decisions on European security such as a revived European Security Council.
Use an E5+ format of key states plus rotating members and EU institution leaders to drive concrete agreements.

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This is a conversation with Andrias Kubilius - the European Union’s Commissioner for Defense and Space.

For those not that familiar with the European Union - a commissioner is kind of like a minister in a nation state, a top politician, responsible for a particular area. Historically the EU has never had a Defence Commissioner because it is not a military organization but since the invasion of Ukraine that has changed quite radically and in 2023, Andrias became the first ever EU Defense commissioner, responsible primarily for rebuilding the European defense industry, rearming Europe and making it ready and able to defend itself. Needles to say, it’s a pretty important role and as the European Union is trying to act more as an independent geopolitical actor, it’s only becoming more important. And for how important his role is, he was extremely open and transparent in this conversation.

We talked about how to make Europe prepared to survive in an increasingly dangerous world and defend itself on its own, without anyone coming to save it. Both about what is he doing to make that happen but also how the European Union needs to change to make it possible , including why he believes that we need a true European army.

We talk a lot about the complicated relationship with the United States - about why and how Europe needs to immediately prepare for United States withdrawing from Europe, about what will be the future of NATO once that happens and whether the EU could replace it, and how would Europe respond if the United States decide to take Greenland by force and how destructive that would be for everyone. And about his views on the new US National Security Strategy - which he is very critical of and which frames the very institution he represents - the European Union - as an opposition to the interests of the United States and something that the US should try to dismantle.

And of course we talk about Russia - about how likely is the threat of a Russian aggression against EU and NATO or how prepared Europe is right now to face it. And much more.