Australia, Europe, US, and China economists review market drivers. Focus on US core PCE inflation data influencing markets. Topics include Fed's rate maintenance, euro area inflation, China PMI, and Asia's economic reports.
US core PCE inflation data suggests slower growth, potentially delaying Fed's easing cycle to September.
Deep dives
The Fed's Approach to Inflation and Rate Decisions
The Fed discussed the possibility of maintaining higher rates if inflation did not reach the 2% target sustainably. They anticipated a gradual decline in inflation towards the target in the medium term, despite recent data suggesting a longer timeline than expected. These developments did not bolster confidence for interest rate cuts.
US Core PCE Inflation and Fed's Easing Cycle Expectations
The US core PCE inflation data is closely watched, with expectations of a slight increase from previous estimates. This slower growth indicates a potential return to disinflation, aligning with the forecast for the Fed's easing cycle to begin later, potentially in September instead of July. Dovish data trends support the case for easing, but some FOMC members are hesitant about rate cuts, indicating a potential delay in the easing cycle.
European and Asian Economic Outlooks
In Europe, focus is on clean inflation prints for crucial insights. The ECB's potential rate cuts hinge on upcoming inflation data. In Asia, China's PMI data reflects moderate growth, with supportive factors like resilient export growth. Furthermore, developments in China's property sector and policy actions aim to address the housing crisis, emphasizing the need for patience in implementing solutions. Japan, India, Korea, and Australia anticipate economic indicators influencing market reactions and regional trends.
Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, George Moran, European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. US core PCE inflation data, out late next week, hold the key for markets.
Chapters: U.S. (01:22), Europe (05:42), Asia (08:53)
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