Nomura – The Week Ahead

Equity markets and risk assets have had a couple of positive days this week, underwritten by the technology sector and by growing market expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut on 10th December. With this in mind, we discuss the Fed outlook and the latest US data, with US data taps turning back on post the government shutdown. In Europe, our focus is on inflation data and the UK budget. In Asia, we focus on the Reserve Bank of India policy meeting next week, India's macro outlook, and key data coming out across the region. Chapters: 01:52, Europe: 09:16, Asia: 14:44.

It's been a roller coaster ride in equity markets this week, coinciding with the release of the long-awaited US jobs report. We discuss why we see the US jobs report as mixed, but supportive of our forecast that the Fed will pause in December. All eyes will be on the UK budget and why the fiscal tightening will be modestly backloaded. In Asia, the focus is on Q3 GDP growth in India, and we deep-dive on South Korea to discuss the hawkish hold we expect from the Bank of Korea next week, as well as Korea's two supercycles.

The news of the week is confirmation of the end of the US government shutdown. In the US, we examine the coming dataflow as the government reopens and the outlook for Fed funds. Across Europe and Japan, there will be no shortage of data to look at next week. We discuss the inflation report in the UK, growth and inflation in Japan, and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Chapters: 01:27, Europe: 07:22, Japan: 12:45, Asia: 17:12.

With equity markets and tech stocks wobbling, we welcome guest speaker, Charlie McElligott, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Nomura, to discuss what is driving equity markets and what to watch in terms of "bubble risk". In the week ahead, politics is still front and center in the US. We discuss the impact of the ongoing shutdown and tariffs. In Europe, we explain how we are viewing the next steps in the UK following the Bank of England's decision, and look briefly at Scandinavian divergence. In Asia, we explore how the region's trade deals with the US are evolving. Chapters: Markets Special: 01:56, US: 17:06, Europe: 23:36, Asia: 29:51.

On the one hand, President Trump's trip to Asia resulted in some trade deals including with China, broadly in line with expectations but nonetheless were welcome news for markets. On the other hand, the hawkish twist by the Fed was a surprise, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in Treasury yields. We explain why we no longer expect a cut by the Fed in December but still see three rate cuts next year. We also discuss the US-China trade truce and the impact on China's growth outlook, and why we forecast a non-consensus Bank of England cut. Chapters: 02:23, China: 09:18, Asia: 14:01, Europe: 21:02.

With the US government shutdown continuing, we've had only limited US data to look at over recent weeks, but that has only increased the focus on geopolitics. This week our focus will be very much on central banks, as we track four of the major central banks which are set to announce rate decisions next week. In the US, a 25bp rate cut from the Fed seems locked and loaded. We also discuss the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank policy meetings. Chapters: US: 02:16, Europe: 09:05, Japan: 14:14, Asia: 19:05.

US-China trade tensions have returned to the spotlight, and we discuss the economic impact from both perspectives as markets await the news on whether we will see further escalation or a softening in tone. In Europe, the UK remains in focus ahead of two significant event risks coming into view, with the Bank of England meeting on 6 November and the budget on 30 November. Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, outlines the latest political developments in Japan, the market impact and the paths ahead. Chapters: Japan: 02:34, China: 08:58, Europe: 15:30, US: 21:50.

Politics continue to take centre stage, with the shocking LDP election result in Japan and the resignation of the French Prime Minister after less than 4 weeks in office. The EUR has weakened as a result, while USD/JPY has surged. We discuss the main policy features of 'Sanaenomics', the implications for the BOJ, and what to expect from the political developments in France. Our guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy & Government Affairs, shares her take on how and when the US government shutdown could end. Chapters: US: 02:12, Japan 13:57, Asia: 20:06, Europe: 21:43.

For financial markets and economists, the main near-term challenge of the US government shutdown is a lack of data. The longer the shutdown rumbles on, the larger the potential negative economic consequences. In Europe, we are moving firmly into budget season, putting fiscal policies at the top of the agenda. In Asia, it is all about central bank meetings, with the Philippines, Thailand and New Zealand all set for rate cuts in the week ahead. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 08:06, Asia: 13:34.

In previous weeks, the Fed's easing expectations appear to have been driving all markets, sending equities higher, credit spreads tighter, and the USD and US yields lower. However, better US data this week have resulted in some rate cut expectations to unwind. Markets will be in for another big test next week, with the US Payrolls report and the significant risk of a US government shutdown. We preview China's PMI data, the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meetings, and activity data in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:49, China: 06:50, India: 10:39, Japan: 13:58, Australia: 15:35.