Nomura – The Week Ahead

With the US government shutdown continuing, we've had only limited US data to look at over recent weeks, but that has only increased the focus on geopolitics. This week our focus will be very much on central banks, as we track four of the major central banks which are set to announce rate decisions next week. In the US, a 25bp rate cut from the Fed seems locked and loaded. We also discuss the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank policy meetings. Chapters: US: 02:16, Europe: 09:05, Japan: 14:14, Asia: 19:05.

US-China trade tensions have returned to the spotlight, and we discuss the economic impact from both perspectives as markets await the news on whether we will see further escalation or a softening in tone. In Europe, the UK remains in focus ahead of two significant event risks coming into view, with the Bank of England meeting on 6 November and the budget on 30 November. Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, outlines the latest political developments in Japan, the market impact and the paths ahead. Chapters: Japan: 02:34, China: 08:58, Europe: 15:30, US: 21:50.

Politics continue to take centre stage, with the shocking LDP election result in Japan and the resignation of the French Prime Minister after less than 4 weeks in office. The EUR has weakened as a result, while USD/JPY has surged. We discuss the main policy features of 'Sanaenomics', the implications for the BOJ, and what to expect from the political developments in France. Our guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy & Government Affairs, shares her take on how and when the US government shutdown could end. Chapters: US: 02:12, Japan 13:57, Asia: 20:06, Europe: 21:43.

For financial markets and economists, the main near-term challenge of the US government shutdown is a lack of data. The longer the shutdown rumbles on, the larger the potential negative economic consequences. In Europe, we are moving firmly into budget season, putting fiscal policies at the top of the agenda. In Asia, it is all about central bank meetings, with the Philippines, Thailand and New Zealand all set for rate cuts in the week ahead. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 08:06, Asia: 13:34. 

In previous weeks, the Fed's easing expectations appear to have been driving all markets, sending equities higher, credit spreads tighter, and the USD and US yields lower. However, better US data this week have resulted in some rate cut expectations to unwind. Markets will be in for another big test next week, with the US Payrolls report and the significant risk of a US government shutdown. We preview China's PMI data, the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meetings, and activity data in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:49, China: 06:50, India: 10:39, Japan: 13:58, Australia: 15:35. 

Following the Fed's decision to cut by 25bp, we discuss why we now expect substantially more rate cuts in 2025-26, and the impact of the appointment of a new Fed chair in coming months. In Europe, we preview the on-hold decisions we expect from both Swiss National Bank and Riksbank next week. In Asia, we put a spotlight on Indonesia. In this episode, we also speak with Yusuke Miyairi, our G10 FX strategist, who explains why he sees USD/JPY lower in the near-term, amid the latest political developments in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:59, Europe: 10:23, Asia: 15:51, Japan: 17:24.

We are tracking seven central bank meetings next week, and expect rate cuts from three. The Fed policy meeting next week is in full focus, against a highly unusual backdrop. This week we discuss an expected rate cut in the US and Canada. Across Europe, we forecast a rate cut in Norway, but not in the UK. Meanwhile in in Asia, we examine China activity data, the Bank of Japan and the latest political developments, and preview central bank meetings in Indonesia and Taiwan next week. Darren Shames, Head of Global Rates Sales, joins us as a guest speaker to give an update on the latest trends driving Global Markets. Chapters: US: 01:42, Markets Special: 07:14, Europe: 13:13, Japan: 17:23, Asia: 21:32. 

With the August labour market having been released in the US, we provide a reaction on the data, alongside next week's CPI and potential political pressures which could influence the Fed. In Europe, we focus on the French confidence vote and the ECB meeting on Thursday. In Asia, we talk politics in Japan and ASEAN, and how this may impact central bank policy in the months ahead. Chapters: US: 01:56, Europe: 08:45, ASEAN: 14:54, Japan: 22:29.

It's another big week ahead with all eyes on the US jobs report and on-going headlines regarding the firing of Fed Governor Cook. In Europe, we discuss upcoming inflation data, some central bank divergence, and the potential fallout from the vote of confidence in France. In Asia, the focus is on China's growth outlook and Beijing's likely policy strategy amid a strong rally in equity markets. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the next leg of easing by Asian central banks and market implications, with Sonal Varma, Chief Economist for India & Asia ex Japan, and Albert Leung, Asia Rates Strategist. Chapters: (US: 01:53, EMEA: 08:08, China: 12:19, Asia Central Banks Special: 17:25).

We discuss Fed Chair Powell's long-awaited speech at the annual central bank gathering in Jackson Hole. In Europe, our focus is on the ECB and European inflation trends, and we touch on the Russia-Ukraine war and economic implications. Then across Asia, we examine key coming data in China and Japan, and central bank meetings in Korea and the Philippines. Featuring a special segment, we welcome Jonathan Cohn, Head of US Rates Desk Strategy, to discuss key trends in Global Markets. Chapters: (US: 01:46, Global Markets Special: 08:10, EMEA: 15:30, Asia: 18:46).