Shewit Woldemichael, a Crisis Group’s Sudan expert, and Alan Boswell, director for the Horn of Africa, dive deep into Sudan's tumultuous conflict. They analyze the Sudanese army's recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces and the dire humanitarian crisis that ensues. The discussion uncovers the shifting power dynamics, with each faction vying for political influence and control. They also tackle the rising concerns over U.S. disengagement and how it could reshape regional power dynamics. A gripping exploration of conflict, politics, and international involvement!
The Sudanese army has gained military momentum against the RSF, raising concerns about the conflict's humanitarian impact on millions.
External actors significantly influence the ongoing war, complicating the political landscape and hindering effective diplomatic efforts for peace.
Deep dives
Sudan's Shifting Military Landscape
The Sudanese army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has gained momentum in its conflict against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Following a series of strategic offensives that have included capturing critical locations and restricting the movements of the RSF, the army has now made considerable advancements in areas near Khartoum. Significant victories have been highlighted by the recapture of strategic bridges and the end of the RSF's nearly two-year siege on the military headquarters in Khartoum. Reports indicate that intense fighting is ongoing as the Sudanese army moves toward the city center, raising questions about the RSF's ability to regroup and respond effectively.
Humanitarian Crisis Escalation
The ongoing conflict has led to a humanitarian disaster, with nearly 13 million Sudanese displaced and half of the population in dire need of assistance. The United Nations has categorized the situation as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by continual violence and the military advances of the Sudanese army. While some hope that the SAF's control over more regions could facilitate humanitarian access, the reality remains that the complexities of the conflict and armed confrontations threaten to hinder aid distribution even further. Local responders are increasingly targeted, contributing to a volatile environment that makes delivering essential services nearly impossible.
Coalitions and Internal Dynamics
The Sudanese army has effectively established a coalition with various militias and local armed groups to bolster its military efforts against the RSF. This coalition includes Islamist militias, former rebels who have aligned with the army, and community militias formed in response to the RSF's predations. The army's ability to maintain its coalition dynamics is complicated by the ambitions of these allied groups, especially as they push for political recognition and inclusion in a future government. The relationships among these factions could dictate the post-war political landscape, with potential tensions arising as factions vie for power in the wake of the conflict.
International Influence and Future Prospects
The involvement of external powers, such as Egypt, Iran, and Turkey, has been significant in shaping the conflict's trajectory. These countries have provided various forms of military support, influencing the balance between the Sudanese army and the RSF. As the battlefield dynamics evolve, the potential for a broader regional conflict looms, particularly as allies of both sides deepen their involvement. The uncertain political future raises questions about whether a viable peace can be achieved, especially with diminishing U.S. engagement and the complexities of regional alliances, which complicate mediation efforts.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.