Emergency Edition: Rakhine Roulette

Special Release: Vladmir Lenin once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.” At this moment, in the wake of Operation 1027, Myanmar is going through one of these weeks. We now find ourselves in a complex, fluid, fast-moving and high-stakes situation, one which may well very well decide the fate of the country, so we are rushing the production of related interviews to provide listeners with informed, up-to-date analyses.

Our inaugural episode in this series kicks off with Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, who provides an overview of the political context in Rakhine state, detailing the history of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD), the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), the Arakan National Party (ANP), and the Arakan Front Party (AFP). He describes the often-fraught relations that the Rakhine people have had over the years with the Burmese military, the Bamar-majority National League for Democracy (NLD), and the Rohingya minority. He also explains the origins of the powerful Arakan Army (AA) and its political affiliate, the United League of Arakan (ULA), delving into their relations with the National Unity Government (NUG), why they initially agreed to a post-coup truce with the State Administration Council (SAC), but then why they have so dramatically broken that truce to join Operation 1027.

In closing, Kyaw Hsan Hlaing posits that contrary to the opinions of some analysts, the AA/ULA is deeply invested not only in crushing the Burmese military, but also in establishing a strong federal democracy. He describes how the high-stakes gamble that the AA took in joining the operation is very much in line with this aim. He closes by noting that if they make it through the present challenges and the military is defeated, the country has a real chance to become a stable democracy, which will benefit not only the Rakhine people, but all the citizens of Myanmar.