The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 371. Setting the Stage for 2026: Commercial Real Estate Outlook, Key Predictions & Market Resolutions
Dec 30, 2025
The hosts explore the future of commercial real estate, focusing on 2026 predictions amidst changing economic tides. They discuss the impact of interest rates and tariffs, CMBS issuance trends, and rising delinquency rates. There's a spotlight on the competition between Walmart and Amazon for last-mile logistics. Predictions abound, including whether CMBS can reach $100B again and the outlook for bank lending. As they wrap up, they share key market resolutions for a disciplined approach to refinancing and capital structure.
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Sorting Year For Commercial Real Estate
- 2026 will sort the market into clear winners and losers rather than produce a broad rebound.
- Stephen Bushbaum says durable cash flow and strong sponsorship will separate financeable assets from the rest.
Capital Deployment Breaking The Logjam
- Private debt and CRE CLO issuance surged in 2025, signaling investor appetite for repositioning opportunities.
- Lonnie Hendry expects those capital flows to help clear the logjam and boost 2026 transaction volume.
Use Priced Extensions For Rate Optionality
- Use optionality: favor cheaper five-year notes with pre-priced longer extensions when available.
- Stephen Bushbaum recommends this for large loans to hedge long-term rate risk.