Don't Kill the Messenger with Movie Strategist Kevin Goetz Stephen Follows (Film Industry Data Analyst) on Getting the Greenlight and Film Profitability
In this episode of Don't Kill the Messenger, host Kevin Goetz welcomes film industry analyst Stephen Follows for a discussion about film profitability and its connection to data. Stephen's digital book Greenlight Signals analyzes over 10,000 films and 4 million audience responses using secondary data (existing reviews, ratings, and comments from across the internet) to discover what makes a film successful. Together, Kevin and Stephen explore the same mission from different angles: ensuring filmmakers can make money while making the movies they're passionate about.
From Film School to Data Research (2:32) Stephen shares his path from producing micro-budget features to becoming an entertainment data analyst, driven by his love of cinema and his passion for solving problems through logic and research.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (9:59) Stephen recounts the eye-opening experience of helping a producer friend with a business plan, only to discover that every similar film had lost money.
Why Experience Doesn't Equal Success (12:47) Stephen reveals his surprising research finding: there's little to no correlation between a producer's experience and their film's profitability, showing how passion can interfere with business sense.
Two Books, One Goal (22:01) Kevin and Stephen discuss their approaches to data: Kevin's How to Score in Hollywood focuses on pre-greenlight capability testing using audience data, while Stephen's Greenlight Signals uses secondary data to identify patterns across genres. Both emphasize that data guides decisions rather than dictating them.
Horror Films: Control and Atmosphere (33:50) Stephen and Kevin discuss what makes horror movies work, from declaring your genre early to shot-length and how controlling what audiences see and when they see it is essential to creating fear.
Every Movie Should Make Money (45:50) Kevin and Stephen discuss Kevin's theory that every film, if made and marketed for the right price, should be profitable.
Universal Rules Across All Genres (47:49) Stephen and Kevin identify critical commonalities of successful films: emotional authenticity, clear character wants, visible stakes, avoiding confusion, respecting established rules, and maintaining consistent tone throughout.
This episode offers invaluable insights for anyone interested in the intersection of art and commerce in Hollywood.
If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us a review and share. We look forward to bringing you more behind-the-scenes revelations next time on Don't Kill the Messenger.
Host: Kevin Goetz
Guest: Stephen Follows
Producer: Kari Campano
Writers: Kevin Goetz, Darlene Hayman, and Kari Campano
Audio Engineer: Gary Forbes (DG Entertainment)
For more information about Stephen Follows:
Website: https://stephenfollows.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stephenfollows/
IMDB: https://www.im
For more information about Kevin Goetz:
- Website: www.KevinGoetz360.com
- Audienceology Book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Audience-ology/Kevin-Goetz/9781982186678
- How to Score in Hollywood: https://www.amazon.com/How-Score-Hollywood-Secrets-Business/dp/198218986X/
- Facebook, X, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Substack: @KevinGoetz360
- LinkedIn @Kevin Goetz
- Screen Engine/ASI Website: www.ScreenEngineASI.com