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Unintended Consequences
Apr 10, 2025
Joining the discussion is Cedric Chehab, Chief Economist at BMI, known for his expertise in global trade dynamics. He shares insights on the current economic landscape, highlighting the potential for recession amid aggressive tariff policies. The conversation delves into the evolving role of the U.S. in global markets and the impact of trade tensions. Cedric also examines the future of the U.S. dollar and the challenges facing the Chinese economy as it navigates currency valuation. Tune in for a captivating take on today's market complexities.
33:36
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Quick takeaways
- Analysts raise the risk of a U.S. recession to 35%, driven by economic uncertainty and impacts from aggressive tariffs.
- The podcast highlights the Federal Reserve's potential prioritization of economic growth over inflation control in a challenging environment.
Deep dives
U.S. Economic Outlook and Recession Risks
The podcast highlights increasing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, with analysts raising the probability of a recession to 35%. Factors contributing to this outlook include uncertainty in macroeconomic indicators and the impacts of tariffs on GDP, which could reach approximately 2.5% due to a projected 23% effective tariff rate. The discussion emphasizes the delicate balance between escalation and de-escalation of trade conflicts, noting that aggressive tariff increases could lead to significant economic downturns. Analysts explore the potential for trade deals with countries like South Korea and Japan to mitigate recession risks if de-escalation occurs swiftly.
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