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20VC: Bret Taylor: The AI Bubble and What Happens Now | How the Cost of Chips and Models Will Change in AI | Will Companies Build Their Own Software | Why Pre-Training is for Morons | Leaderships Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg

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Oct 2, 2024

Bret Taylor, CEO and Co-founder of Sierra and former Co-CEO of Salesforce, dives into the current AI landscape. He questions the sustainability of the so-called AI bubble and challenges the notion that companies will create their own software. Taylor also discusses why foundation models might be the fastest depreciating assets and shares insights on AI's potential to replace traditional consumer interfaces. The conversation touches on the shifting landscape of computing, highlighting the importance of tailored software solutions in a rapidly evolving tech world.

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INSIGHT

AI Bubble vs. Dot-Com Bubble

The AI bubble is similar to the dot-com bubble, with excesses but also massive value creation.
Focus on the long-term transformative impact rather than short-term hype.

INSIGHT

AI Market Trajectory

AI will likely follow the cloud market's trajectory: infrastructure, tools, then SaaS.
Companies prefer pre-built solutions, and AI won't change that preference.

ADVICE

Model Selection and Training

Download Llama or Mistral if you need an adequate foundation model, then fine-tune it.
Pre-training models is capital-intensive and unnecessary for most companies.

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Bret Taylor is CEO and Co-Founder of Sierra, a conversational AI platform for businesses. Previously, he served as Co-CEO of Salesforce. Prior to Salesforce, Bret founded Quip and was CTO of Facebook. He started his career at Google, where he co-created Google Maps. Bret serves on the board of OpenAI.

In Today's Discussion with Bret Taylor:

1. The Biggest Misconceptions About AI Today:

Does Bret believe we are in an AI bubble or not?
Why does Bret believe it is BS that companies will all use AI to build their own software?
What does no one realise about the cost of compute today in a world of AI?

2. Foundation Models: The Fastest Depreciating Asset in History?

As a board member of OpenAI, does Bret agree that foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history?
Will every application be subsumed by foundation models? What will be standalone?
How does Bret think about the price dumping we are seeing in the foundation model landscape?
Does Bret believe we will continue to see small foundation model companies (Character, Adept, Inflection) be acquired by larger incumbents?

3. The Biggest Opportunity in AI Today: The Death of the Phone + Website:

What does Bret believe are the biggest opportunities in the application layer of AI today?
Why does Bret put forward the case that we will continue to see the role of the phone reduce in consumer lives? How does AI make that happen?
What does Bret mean when he says we are moving from a world of software rules to guardrails?
What does AI mean for the future of websites? How does Bret expect consumers to interact with their favourite brands in 10 years?

4. Bret Taylor: Ask Me Anything: Zuck, Leadership, Fundraising:

Bret has worked with Zuck, Tobi @ Shopify, Marc Benioff and more, what are his biggest lessons from each of them on great leadership?
How did Bret come to choose Peter @ Benchmark to lead his first round? What advice does Bret have to other VCs on how to be a great VC?
Bret is on the board of OpenAI, what have been his biggest lessons from OpenAI on what it takes to be a great board member?