The Rate Guy 'Twas the Night Before FOMC
Dec 16, 2024
Anticipation fills the air as the hosts dissect expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts. They weave humor into the discussion, even reciting a whimsical version of 'Twas The Night Before FOMC.' The conversation dives deep into monetary policy, inflation, and labor market trends, all while encouraging listeners to keep an eye on future developments. Join in for a mix of festive fun and insightful economic analysis.
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Rate Cut Certainty
- The market gives a 97% probability to an interest rate cut.
- J.P. Conklin believes it's a sure bet and advises betting on a cut.
Rate Cut Prediction
- J.P. Conklin predicted one and a quarter rate cuts a year ago and feels vindicated by the current situation.
- He sees the Fed's recalibration as a positive outcome, suggesting a more flexible approach.
Fed Projections
- The Fed is likely to revise GDP and inflation upwards, but the long-term interest rate target remains around 3%.
- The approach to reaching this target will be "lower but slower" than initially anticipated.