What will the US presidential election mean for the economy?
Oct 29, 2024
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Jared Bernstein, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Biden, and Kevin Hassett, the former Chairman under President Trump, engage in a lively debate on economic policy. They tackle the implications of corporate tax hikes, exploring how raising rates could impact growth and investment. Bernstein highlights the benefits of expanding child tax credits in reducing poverty, while both reflect on the challenges of tariffs in U.S.-China relations. Their insights reveal stark contrasts in vision while acknowledging common economic concerns.
The contrasting economic policies proposed by presidential candidates could lead to significant market shifts, affecting trade, taxation, and overall fiscal strategies.
Economists highlight the importance of addressing housing, childcare, and inflationary pressures while advocating for sustainable fiscal practices in future administrations.
Deep dives
Economic Landscape and Challenges Ahead
The next U.S. president will inherit an economy characterized by a solid expansion, with inflation returning to target levels and low unemployment rates. Despite this positive backdrop, there are significant challenges such as issues in the housing and childcare markets, as well as the impacts of extreme weather. Upcoming administrations will need to address ongoing trade and geopolitical challenges that may affect economic stability. The contrasting perspectives from economists reveal debates on whether the current economic conditions show momentum or signs of a looming recession.
Divergent Views on Tariffs
The discussion on tariffs reveals deep divisions between economic leaders, with one economist advocating for robust measures against China due to issues like corporate espionage and overproduction of steel. This economist argues that past protections were vital for national security, suggesting that aggressive trade policies may be warranted. Conversely, another economist emphasizes that while targeted tariffs can protect against unfair practices, sweeping tariffs can have deleterious effects on consumers and domestic producers, functioning like a sales tax. This perspective advocates for careful consideration in tariff policies to maintain a balance in trade dynamics.
Tax Policies and Government Finances
The debate surrounding corporate tax increases highlights differing beliefs about their impact on economic growth, with one economist supporting a rise to 28% to generate revenue while suggesting that lower rates have marginal benefits. Discussions on taxing unrealized capital gains further illustrate conflicts, with one view framing it as an efficient taxation measure on high earners and another warning against its potential negative implications on economic growth. The need for expanding child and earned income tax credits is mutually recognized as beneficial in reducing poverty and supporting families during inflationary periods. Both economists stress the urgent need for sustainable fiscal practices, acknowledging high spending as a crucial factor in the current deficit narrative.
How could the proposed policy agendas between the two US presidential candidates shape markets and economies? Top economists from the Democratic and Republican parties discuss a range of economic policies, painting starkly different policy approaches in some key areas but similarities in others. In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speak with host Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Post-election economic policies.
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