"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

AGI and Institutional Disruption: Sam Hammond in Conversation with FLI’s Gus Docker

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Dec 30, 2023

Samuel Hammond, a senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, discusses the transformative potential of AGI on economies and institutions. He explores the likely paths to AGI and the critical differences between viewing AI in isolation versus as part of a dynamic system. Hammond also advocates for a robust megaproject for AI safety, drawing parallels with historical projects. Additionally, he highlights the implications of AI on governance, market dynamics, and societal structures, urging for a reassessment of existing frameworks in light of rapid technological advancement.

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INSIGHT

AGI Timeline

Samuel Hammond believes AGI is possible this decade due to AI's training on human data.
AI indirectly emulates human intelligence by reproducing human tasks and outputs.

INSIGHT

Emulating Human Intelligence

AI models, trained on human data, can achieve human-level competence.
Debating AGI's definition becomes less important than its ability to perform human tasks.

INSIGHT

AI Progress Prediction

Increased investment and talent in AI research suggest significant advancements are coming.
Focusing too much on current literature can obscure the bigger picture of AI progress.

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For the end of the year, we're going to repost a few of Nathan's favorite AI scouting episodes from other shows. Today: Samuel Hammond joins the Future of Life Institute podcast to discuss how AGI will transform economies, governments, institutions, and other power structures. If you need an ecommerce platform, check out our sponsor Shopify: https://shopify.com/cognitive for a $1/month trial period.

Samuel Hammond is a Canadian-born, DC-based senior economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank focused on bridging the cultures of Silicon Valley and DC. This conversation is super wide ranging, covering the most likely default path to AGI, the economic and institutional transformations that AI will beget, the critical distinction between thinking about AI in isolation versus as part of a dynamic system, the proposal for a Manhattan or Apollo like megaproject for AI safety, and lots more.

You can subscribe to Future of Life Institute here: https://futureoflife.org/project/future-of-life-institute-podcast/

You can read Samuel Hammond's blog at https://www.secondbest.ca

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SPONSORS:

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro: End of year and bonus episodes

(04:24) Discussion on AI Timelines

(14:08) Insights from Information Theory

(15:11) Sponsors: Shopify | MasterClass

(32:12) AI Progress and Hard Steps in Evolution

(34:21) Sponsors: NetSuite | Omneky

(39:12) Government Preparedness for Advanced AI

(46:16) The Internet's Role in Mass Mobilization and Erosion of Trust

(01:05:47) The Role of AI in Monitoring and Surveillance

(01:27:18) The Potential Dangers of Open-Sourcing AI

(01:36:24) The Influence of AI on Society and Privacy

(01:42:21) The Future of Government Services in a Techno-Feudalist Society

(01:53:58) The Future of AI in Robotics

(02:15:25) The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Markets

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.