Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and Mike Brisson, a vehicle industry expert, discuss the potential consequences of the UAW strike for the auto industry, including supply chain disruptions and closure of operations. They also analyze the impact of the strike on automakers, inflation, and small business pessimism. The discussion also touches on business confidence and the vehicle industry, strikes' effects on vehicle prices, and statistics on inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Lastly, they address concerns about rising fuel prices and its potential effects on the economy.
The UAW strike could last for months and have significant disruptions to production and supply chains in the auto industry.
The federal budget recorded a surplus in August due to the Supreme Court striking down the implementation of the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan.
The increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was primarily driven by a surge in gasoline prices, but current inflationary pressures are narrower in scope compared to previous months.
Deep dives
UAW Strike and Potential Impact on the Auto Industry
The podcast episode discusses the potential UAW strike and its impact on the auto industry. There is a growing belief that the strike could last for a couple of months, with potential disruptions to production and supply chains. The strike is expected to target specific factories, including transmission plants, and may force manufacturers to shut down operations across the board. The magnitude of the strike is significant, potentially affecting approximately 150,000 vehicles per week. GM and Stellantis are likely to face challenges sooner, while Ford may be better positioned in the short term. The strike also raises important issues for both sides, including compensation, benefits, tiered rules for employees, and the shift to electric vehicle production. Other brands like Toyota could benefit from the situation, as they have non-unionized plants and could potentially increase production. The duration of the strike and its impact on truck prices, given the mix of vehicle sales, will be important factors to monitor.
Budget Surplus in August
In a surprising turn of events, the federal budget recorded a surplus of $89.3 billion in August, which is uncommon for that month. However, this surplus is attributed to a specific event, namely the Supreme Court striking down the implementation of the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan. As a result, there was a reduction in outlay for the Department of Education, which led to the surplus. It is important to note that this surplus is not indicative of a broader change in the fiscal trajectory, as the federal budget still faces significant challenges and a substantial deficit of over $200 billion last month and $1.5 trillion year-to-date.
August CPI Increase, But Context is Key
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 0.6% increase, the highest since June of last year. However, it's important to consider the context. The CPI increase was primarily driven by a 10.6% jump in gasoline prices, contributing nearly 0.4% of the overall CPI increase. This increase in gasoline prices can be attributed to factors like oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nonetheless, the current inflationary pressures are narrower in scope compared to the broader-based inflation experienced in June 2022. The median CPI, which focuses on the middle range of price changes and ignores outliers, reveals a more accurate representation of overall inflationary pressures. While inflation remains a topic of concern, it's crucial to recognize that the current pressures are more limited in their impact.
GDP Impacts of Automaker Shutdown
The podcast discusses the GDP impacts of automaker shutdowns, highlighting the loss of production, output, and incomes throughout the entire ecosystem of the automaker industry. The reduced vehicle production directly affects GDP by producing fewer vehicles. Additionally, the shutdown has spillover effects, causing a decrease in the production of vehicle components and a decrease in spending by workers who are affected by the income loss. The podcast also mentions the potential inflationary effects due to lean inventories and rising vehicle prices, which could complicate the overall inflation picture.
Regional and Local Market Disruptions
The podcast emphasizes the impact of automaker shutdowns on regional and local markets, particularly in Michigan and the Midwest. With Detroit 3 brands having a significant presence in these areas, disruptions in production lead to localized problems. The podcast highlights how dealerships in smaller tertiary markets and rural areas, such as Ford dealerships, play a crucial role as employers and community drivers. The podcast recognizes that the automaker industry involves a significant ecosystem, beyond just production, including mechanics, maintenance, insurance, and more.
The looming UAW strike is top of mind, and no one better to talk to about how it may play out and what it means for the economy than Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and our own vehicle industry expert, Mike Brisson. Bernard Yaros also joins the podcast to talk about the consumer inflation report. Mark and Cris agree that while the current economic numbers look good, there’s plenty to worry about.