Currents 058: John Robb on Russia-Ukraine Outcomes

Continuing his series of expert interviews on the Russia-Ukraine War, Jim talks again with John Robb, this time about the likelihood of a settlement... Continuing his series of expert interviews on the Russia-Ukraine War, Jim talks again with John Robb, this time about the likelihood of a settlement. They discuss the pressures currently pushing both sides against negotiating, why Russia is opposed to Ukraine joining the EU, the likelihood of an ongoing stalemate, why WWI is a better analogue for this war than WWII, the current balance of forces in Ukraine & absence of data on Ukrainian losses, Russia's failure to take advantage of drones and smart weapons, why Russia has underachieved compared with analyst predictions, the downside of closed societies & nepotism, transition points that could change willingness to settle, Putin's "maximum acceptable atrocity" restraint, the possibility of nuclear escalation, a new network mechanism for collective security, the overblown narrative of Russian disinformation capacity, why Russia hasn't destroyed Ukraine's communications infrastructure, strategic implications of global network warfare, coming rapid improvements in drone tech, and much more. Episode Transcript JRS Currents 052: John Robb on War in Ukraine JRS Currents 054: Samo Burja on the Russia-Ukraine War The Open Society and Its Enemies, by Karl Popper Institute for the Study of War's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment John is an author, inventor, entrepreneur, technology analyst, astro engineer, and military pilot. He’s started numerous successful technology companies, including one in the financial sector that sold for $295 million and one that pioneered the software we currently see in use at Facebook and Twitter. John’s insight on technology and governance has appeared on the BBC, Fox News, National Public Radio, CNBC, The Economist, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and BusinessWeek. John served as a pilot in a tier-one counter-terrorism unit that worked alongside Delta and Seal Team 6. He wrote the book Brave New War on the future of national security, and has advised the Joint Chiefs of Staff, NSA, DoD, CIA, and the House Armed Services Committee.