Excess Returns The Regime Shift No One is Prepared For | Grant Williams on the 100 Year Pivot
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Jan 12, 2026 Grant Williams, an investment commentator and expert in macroeconomics, discusses the 'hundred year pivot,' highlighting a seismic shift in the global financial landscape. He explains the erosion of trust in institutions and how historical events like the 2008 crisis have reshaped investor behavior. Williams explores the rising importance of commodities and real assets in a deglobalizing world, and he examines the implications of AI on capital allocation. His insights provide a thought-provoking perspective on navigating a future marked by uncertainty and volatility.
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Century-Scale Institutional Shift
- The "100-year pivot" describes a generational Fourth Turning where institutions lose trust and systems reorder over decades.
- Grant Williams argues this cycle begins around 2008 and will be tumultuous before a later multi-decade renewal.
Financial Crisis Kicked Off Trust Decay
- The 2008 financial crisis exposed institutional failures and started a longer erosion of trust in banks, government, and money.
- Williams links this erosion to fiat money's vulnerability, since modern money depends entirely on trust rather than tangible backing.
2022 Asset Freezes Changed Reserve Calculus
- Freezing Russian sovereign assets in 2022 signaled to central banks that dollar reserves might not be reliably accessible.
- Williams says that move incentivized central banks toward alternatives like gold, reshaping reserve motivations.
