Life During Wartime: Israel’s Resolve; Can Ukraine Still Win? | GoodFellows: John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, H.R. McMaster, Russ Roberts, and Bill Whalen
The podcast sheds light on Israel's resilience and strategic choices amid a month-long wartime crisis.
There is a generational shift in attitudes towards Israel, with declining support for its military response among young people in the US and UK.
The US faces challenges in effectively supporting Ukraine, maintaining deterrence in the Middle East, and ensuring deterrence for Taiwan, requiring a stronger defense industrial base and increased support for Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Deep dives
The Conflict in Israel and Personal Perspectives
The podcast episode provides insights into the conflict in Israel, with a focus on personal perspectives. The host interviews Russ Roberts, a Hoover colleague in Jerusalem, who shares his experiences living in a region under constant threat and provides insight into the mood and resolve of the Israeli people. The discussion highlights the challenges faced by Israel in addressing the twin goals of eliminating Hamas's military capabilities and governance while bringing back the hostages held by the group. Additionally, the episode touches on the international response to the conflict and the ignorance and protests observed in some parts of the world.
Israel's Weakening Position and Generational Shift
The podcast delves into the weakened position of Israel compared to previous years, particularly in terms of support from younger generations. It explores the generational shift in attitudes and the decline in support for Israel's military response to Hamas among young people in the United States and the UK. The discussion raises questions about the reasons behind this shift and speculates on the role of factors such as education, postmodernism, and critical theories in shaping the views of young people. The potential implications of this generational divide for Israel's future position and the broader geopolitical landscape are also considered.
US Involvement, Capability, and Support for Ukraine
The podcast examines the role of the United States in providing support and deterrence in the context of Ukraine's conflict with Russia. It highlights the need for the US to effectively juggle multiple responsibilities, including providing assistance to Ukraine, maintaining deterrence in the Middle East, and ensuring deterrence for Taiwan. The discussion acknowledges the challenges faced by the US in effectively addressing these interconnected conflicts and calls for a stronger defense industrial base, increased support for Ukraine's defense capabilities, and the strengthening of supply chains. The resistance in Congress to funding Ukraine is also touched upon, with questions raised regarding the motivations behind this resistance and its potential impact on the conduct of the war.
The Toll of War: High Death Rates and Ongoing Brutality
The podcast episode highlights the devastating consequences of wars in Israel, emphasizing the high death toll and the brutal price paid by the country. The speaker mentions that while the numbers of casualties may seem small given the country's size, they are still significant and need to be inflated to become comparable to larger countries like the United States. The ongoing military reality in Israel is portrayed as making things much harder for the country, affecting both its resolve and its ability to take necessary actions.
The Uncertain Future: Preemptive Actions and Potential Alliances
The podcast also discusses the potential for a larger war and the role of preemptive actions. The speaker raises concerns about the Hezbollah rockets aimed at deterring Israel and the US from taking action against Iran. They speculate whether a future conflict may be inevitable to neutralize these rockets and protect against a new Iranian nuclear program. On a more optimistic note, the speaker mentions the Abraham Accords as a potential means to bring Arab states together in support of Israel against Iran, and maybe even aid in resolving the Palestinian question in the long term.
Two conflicts present two challenges: a Ukrainian counteroffensive turned stalemate; and Israel’s survival as it confronts Hamas (and possibly Hezbollah and Iran). Russ Roberts, Hoover’s John and Jean De Nault Research Fellow and president of Jerusalem’s Shalem College, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss Israel’s morale and strategic choices amid a month-long wartime crisis. Then Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, makes the case for anticipating a positive outcome—Ukraine expelling Russian forces, winning back its land—in a war nearing its 21-month mark.
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