Who are the rebels threatening Assad's grip on Syria?
Dec 3, 2024
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Mina Al-Lami, a jihadist media specialist with BBC Monitoring, and Barbara Plett Usher, a BBC correspondent with deep insights from Beirut, dive into the resurgence of conflict in Syria. They discuss the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo and its implications for Assad's regime. The dialogue explores the transformation of rebel factions like HTS and the hope for reform among the Syrian people. Additionally, the strategic significance of Aleppo emerges, highlighting a complex web of geopolitics and the resilience of civilians amidst renewed violence.
The recent offensive by rebel groups in Aleppo marks a surprising resurgence in Syria's civil war, challenging Assad's long-held power.
The fragmented nature of rebel groups and their inability to unite has historically limited their effectiveness against Assad's regime.
Deep dives
The Resurgence of Conflict in Syria
A surprising resurgence of the long-dormant civil war in Syria has taken place, initiated by rebel groups launching an offensive in Aleppo. This sudden shift has prompted a strong response from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has vowed to suppress the uprising with the help of Russian airstrikes. Over the years, the conflict has evolved, with various factions forming and multiple foreign players, such as Iran and Hezbollah, intervening to support Assad's regime. The recent offensive raises questions about the potential restructuring of power dynamics within Syria, as the rebel coalition seeks to reclaim lost territories.
Historical Context and Factionalization
The conflict in Syria originated from anti-government protests in 2011, influenced by the Arab Spring, which escalated into a full-scale civil war as rebel groups emerged. Initial efforts to oust Assad were complicated by the infiltration of jihadist factions, such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, which led to diminished international support for the opposition. Today, Syria remains fragmented, with the Assad regime controlling most of the territory, while small pockets are held by various rebel groups, including HTS in the northwest. The inability of these groups to unite under a common cause has hampered their effectiveness over the years.
Current Dynamics and Future Implications
The rebel coalition's recent successes highlight the potential for change in the current balance of power in Syria, particularly as Assad's allies like Russia and Iran are distracted by other regional conflicts. The rapid territorial gains made by the rebels, especially in economically significant areas like Aleppo, signify a major setback for the Assad regime and raise the stakes for his response. With local civilians stuck in the crossfire, fears of returning to the horrors of war are mounting. This evolving situation presents a complex challenge for all parties involved, including possible ramifications for regional stability.
The long-running civil war in Syria has unexpectedly sprung back into the spotlight after rebel groups launched a surprise offensive on Aleppo, one of the country’s largest cities. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has vowed to crush the rebel uprising, prompting air strikes from Russian forces allied with his regime. This is an unexpected resurgence of a conflict that has been largely dormant for years.
Azadeh Moshiri speaks with BBC Monitoring's jihadist media specialist Mina Al-Lami and BBC correspondent Barbara Plett Usher about who these rebels are and whether this will this redraw the lines of the Syrian conflict.
The Global Story brings you trusted insights from BBC journalists worldwide. We want your ideas, stories and experiences to help us understand and tell #TheGlobalStory. Email us at theglobalstory@bbc.com You can also message us or leave a voice note via WhatsApp on +44 330 123 9480.
Producers: Alice Aylett Roberts, Tom Kavanagh and Mhairi MacKenzie
Sound engineers: Ben Andrews and Jonny Hall
Assistant editor: Sergi Forcada Freixas
Senior news editor: Sara Wadeson
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