Judson Jones, a natural disasters expert from The New York Times, dives into the devastating impact of Hurricane Otis on southern Mexico. He explains how this rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane exemplifies a worrying trend of surprise storms fueled by climate change. Jones emphasizes the increased risks for coastal communities and stresses the urgent need for improved forecasting technologies and public preparedness to tackle these escalating threats.
Rapid intensification of hurricanes, fueled by warming ocean waters due to climate change, is a growing concern for meteorologists.
Mitigation efforts such as building resilient infrastructure and providing hurricane-proof shelters are crucial in safeguarding coastal communities from rapidly intensifying storms.
Deep dives
Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Otis
Hurricane Otis, which hit southern Mexico, rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours, catching many by surprise. This unprecedented and dangerous speed of intensification, known as rapid intensification, is a growing concern for meteorologists. The warming of ocean waters due to climate change is a major driving factor behind this phenomenon. Warmer waters provide more fuel for hurricanes, allowing them to rapidly gain strength and become more destructive. Rapid intensification is happening more frequently and poses challenges for forecasting and preparedness, as people have less time to evacuate and make necessary preparations. As a mitigation measure, building resilient infrastructure and having hurricane-proof shelters readily available in at-risk areas can help save lives.
The Increasing Frequency of Rapid Intensification
Studies indicate that rapid intensification, like what was observed with Hurricane Otis, is occurring with greater frequency due to climate change. Warming ocean temperatures and a column of warm water instead of cold upwelling water provide the necessary energy for storms to rapidly intensify. The increasing frequency of this phenomenon is a cause for concern and necessitates better forecasting models and data collection of storm intensification. Despite advancements in meteorology, the speed and magnitude of rapid intensification can surpass forecasts, making it challenging to provide timely and accurate warnings to communities in the path of these rapidly intensifying storms.
Mitigating the Effects of Rapidly Intensifying Storms
In light of the growing threat of rapid intensification, it is crucial to focus on mitigation strategies to minimize the impact of these storms. This includes employing building materials, such as hurricane ties, to reinforce structures and prevent damage. Additionally, avoiding construction in flood-prone areas and providing hurricane-proof or tornado-proof shelters in at-risk communities can offer refuge during these rapidly intensifying storms. While better observations and forecasting advancements are necessary, mitigation efforts are crucial in safeguarding coastal communities and reducing the loss of life as these storms become stronger and arrive with little warning.
Hurricane Otis, which killed more than two dozen people in southern Mexico this week, exemplified a phenomenon that meteorologists fear will become more and more common: a severe hurricane that arrives with little warning or time to prepare.
Judson Jones, who covers natural disasters for The Times, explains why Hurricane Otis packed such an unexpected punch.
Guest: Judson Jones, who covers natural disasters and Earth’s changing climate for The New York Times.
Background reading:
On Tuesday morning, few meteorologists were talking about Otis. By Wednesday morning, the “catastrophic storm” had left a trail of destruction in Mexico and drawn attention from around the globe. What happened?
The hurricane, one of the more powerful Category 5 storms to batter the region, created what one expert called a “nightmare scenario” for a popular tourist coastline.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
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