Episode 33: U.S. Economy Vital Signs — Making Sense of Recent Data

Rob Rowe talks with Chief U.S. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst on his assessment of the U.S. economy following the April jobs report and May FOMC meeting. On the one hand, survey results (“soft” data) suggest that consumers are worried about job prospects and are reining in their spending, and that businesses might exercise restraint on hiring and investment. On the other hand, actual consumer spending and employment numbers (“hard” data) are robust, supporting the sustained narrative of a resilient economy. But as Andrew argues, the impact of the early-April tariffs, the DOGE layoffs, and a generally slowing economy have yet to be felt, and the soft data is signaling that some concern is warranted about where things might go from here.

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