JF 3909: Interest Rates, Cap Rate Trends, and CRE Buy Timing

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the rising risk of higher interest rates and their impact on commercial real estate. He breaks down recent shifts in FedWatch predictions, explains why inflation fears are growing despite current readings, and explores how political uncertainty—especially around tariffs and the stalled federal budget—is pushing markets into volatility. John also examines cap rate trends and evaluates whether investors and sellers should act now or wait, with a strong argument for deploying capital soon if there’s a path to positive leverage. He wraps up by highlighting the CRE sectors he believes are best positioned for growth, including multifamily housing, well-located retail, infill industrial, and medical office.

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