UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Stories versus reality'
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Aug 14, 2025 The latest UK GDP figures throw a curveball at negative economic narratives, revealing unexpected growth, especially in manufacturing. The discussion also tackles media misconceptions about millionaire migration and its implications. As the conversation unfolds, there's a close look at how upcoming US inflation data and trade taxes might shift the landscape further. Get ready for an insightful blend of economic realities and media perceptions.
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UK GDP Beat Expectations
- UK GDP surprised on the upside in Q2, showing stronger-than-expected growth concentrated toward quarter-end.
- High-frequency indicators can miss parts of the economy and may understate true activity.
Manufacturing Revisions Support Growth
- June manufacturing output was stronger with positive revisions to prior data, supporting the upbeat GDP print.
- The economy isn't booming but showed a relatively solid performance versus negative media narratives.
Official Data Beats Private Models
- Recent events highlight the importance of reliable official economic data as a benchmark against private models.
- Private sector models can create dramatic but possibly misleading stories when official data is absent.