Windsurf grew fast, hit $82M in ARR, and was nearly acquired by OpenAI for $3 billion—until the deal collapsed. Google stepped in with a $2.4 billion offer, but only for 40 engineers.

In this episode, Sam, Asad, and AJ are joined by Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, to break down what really happened and what this deal signals for the future of startup M&A. They explore how acqui-hires are evolving into talent-first extractions, what founders owe their teams in billion-dollar outcomes, and why equity might not mean what employees think it does. The crew also debates whether enterprise revenue is still reliable in AI startups, how employees can protect themselves in a shifting market, and whether we’re already deep in another bubble.

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Key chapters:

(00:00) - Introduction to Topline Podcast

(00:47) - The Windsurf Acquisition and Its Implications

(12:39) - The State of Startups and Market Dynamics

(23:55) - Employee Impact and Corporate Responsibility

(36:08) - The Future of Startup Employment and Negotiation

(46:04) - Venture Capital Trends and Market Outlook

Episode 96: A Familiar Uncertainty