The Gray Area with Sean Illing The War in Ukraine, Explained — Part 3: The nuclear threat
Apr 14, 2022
In this insightful discussion, Jeff Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, unpacks the nuclear threats arising from the Ukraine conflict. He highlights the ambiguous nature of tactical nuclear weapons and their real deterrent value. Lewis examines Russia's nuclear strategy under Putin and the critical miscalculations that could escalate tensions. The conversation also stresses the necessity for U.S.-Russia communication to prevent misunderstandings, while reflecting on past nuclear crises and the ethical dilemmas surrounding intervention and deterrence.
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Low Probability of Russian Nuclear Use
- Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons, as it doesn't align with their stated policy or offer a clear path to victory.
- Their doctrine reserves nukes for existential threats to the state, not battlefield losses.
Misconceptions About Tactical Nukes
- Tactical nuclear weapons are much larger and more destructive than most people realize.
- Even small tactical nukes are comparable to the Hiroshima bomb.
MacArthur and Nukes in Korea
- During the Korean War, Douglas MacArthur pushed for nuclear weapons use, ultimately losing him command.
- Generals after MacArthur continued advocating for such a move due to Chinese air cover, but it never happened.
