Join Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Scott R. Anderson and Dan Byman from Brookings, Oula A. Alrifai, a Syrian specialist, and Leah West, a Canadian expert on ISIS detainees, as they dissect the chaotic aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria. They cover the fallout of Turkish incursions, the humanitarian crisis facing families, and the precarious state of Kurdish forces against ISIS. Their insights illuminate the complex geopolitical dynamics and serious implications for regional stability.
The U.S. withdrawal from northeastern Syria has destabilized the region, leading to Turkish military incursions and threatened Kurdish autonomy.
The Syrian Democratic Forces must navigate precarious alliances with the Assad regime to counter Turkish advances, despite historical repression.
Growing concerns over the resurgence of ISIS highlight the urgent need for international diplomatic efforts to stabilize the volatile situation.
Deep dives
U.S. Withdrawal and Turkish Invasion
The U.S. decision to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria has led to a significant Turkish military incursion aimed at securing a 'safe zone' along the border. This abrupt withdrawal surprised U.S. allies and local forces, specifically the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who had been crucial partners in the fight against ISIS. The chaotic situation has forced the SDF to seek alliances with the Syrian regime, which is largely viewed as a threat by the Kurds, in an attempt to counteract the Turkish advance. Without U.S. support, the fragile stability maintained by the presence of American forces has been severely undermined, raising concerns for the safety and autonomy of Kurdish populations in the region.
The Complex Web of Alliances and Enmities
The podcast highlights the intricate and often conflicting relationships among the Kurdish forces, the Syrian regime, and Turkey. Historically, the Kurdish population in Syria has faced repression from the Assad regime but had found some degree of autonomy during the civil war, bolstered by American support. With Turkey's military operation, the Kurds are caught in a precarious position, being compelled to negotiate with a regime that has long betrayed their interests. This complex interplay underscores that while the U.S. withdrawal opens the door for Turkish aggression, it simultaneously grants the Syrian regime an opportunity to regain control over regions that had previously slipped from its grasp.
Implications for ISIS and Regional Stability
The withdrawal of U.S. forces raises serious concerns regarding the potential resurgence of ISIS in the region. As the SDF reallocates efforts to defend against Turkish advances, the previously maintained guard over many ISIS detainees and their camps becomes increasingly compromised. Civilians in the region are already feeling the impact, with reports of casualties and unrest in places like the Al-Hul camp, where ISIS ideology can easily find a foothold. This creates a dangerous vacuum that ISIS may exploit, threatening not only local stability but also wider regional security.
The Role of International Diplomacy
Amidst the chaos, the necessity for a robust international diplomatic effort becomes apparent. The possibility of an international force to stabilize the situation is suggested as a way to prevent further human rights violations and foster a more comprehensive agreement among the conflicting parties. With the U.S. having lost significant leverage due to its sudden withdrawal, diplomatic efforts must focus on engaging all stakeholders, including Russia and the Assad regime, while advocating for the rights and safety of the Kurdish population. This multifaceted approach is vital to prevent escalating violence and ensuring some semblance of governance and peace in the region.
Erdogan's Ambitions and the Resettlement Plan
Turkey's strategy involves not just military control but also demographic changes in the region, aiming to resettle a significant number of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey into northeastern Syria. This is intended to dilute Kurdish autonomy and prevent the establishment of a self-governing Kurdish state, aligning with Turkey's long-standing opposition to Kurdish political aspirations. However, many refugees fear returning due to the risk of persecution by the Assad regime, which raises ethical and legal issues surrounding the resettlement effort. The complexities of these demographic shifts not only pose humanitarian concerns but also threaten further unrest as local populations resist external attempts to alter their demographic makeup.
From October 19, 2019: It's been a horrible week in northeastern Syria. The U.S. abandoned its Kurdish allies after the president had a conversation by phone with Turkish President Erdogan and pulled the plug on the stabilizing U.S. presence in the region. The Turkish government began a major incursion over the border, which has produced significant casualties and major questions about ISIS detainees in Kurdish custody.
To talk through it all, we pulled together quite a group. In the first half of the podcast, Benjamin Wittes spoke with Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Scott R. Anderson and Dan Byman, both of Brookings and Lawfare. In the second half, Ben sat down with Oula A. Alrifai, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Leah West, a Lecturer of International Affairs at Carleton University in Canada.