The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: What's Going on in Syria
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Dec 15, 2024 Join Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Scott R. Anderson and Dan Byman from Brookings, Oula A. Alrifai, a Syrian specialist, and Leah West, a Canadian expert on ISIS detainees, as they dissect the chaotic aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria. They cover the fallout of Turkish incursions, the humanitarian crisis facing families, and the precarious state of Kurdish forces against ISIS. Their insights illuminate the complex geopolitical dynamics and serious implications for regional stability.
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US Presence as Deterrent
- A small U.S. force maintained stability in Northeast Syria, not through direct combat, but by deterring other actors.
- Their presence and the implied threat of U.S. airpower kept Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime at bay.
Turkish Justification
- Turkey's stated justification for the incursion, protecting themselves from the SDF, is questionable.
- While links exist between the SDF and PKK, the SDF posed no direct threat to Turkey.
Turkish Motivation
- Turkey's focus on the PKK, despite a greater threat from ISIS, stems from historical animosity and a perceived existential threat.
- Erdogan's political motivations likely exacerbate this overreaction.