The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

The Past and Future of Societal Collapse: Why Civilizations Fall and What We Can Learn From It with Luke Kemp

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Sep 24, 2025

In this enlightening discussion, Luke Kemp, an existential risk researcher and author, delves into why civilizations, which he calls 'Goliaths,' rise and fall. He explores dominance hierarchies, resource control, and how factors like inequality can lead to societal collapse. Luke also addresses modern challenges like nuclear threats and AI surveillance. Through historical insights, he suggests that understanding our past may help avert future crises and advocates for reforms to redistribute power, emphasizing the importance of collective values over conspicuous consumption.

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INSIGHT

Goliath Defined: Civilization As Dominance

Goliaths are dominance-hierarchy societies built on violence and concentrated power.
Luke Kemp reframes 'civilization' as Goliath to emphasize hierarchy and coercion over virtue.

INSIGHT

Lootable Surplus Enables Hierarchies

Lootable, storable surplus (like grain) enables elites to hoard and build dominance.
Non-lootable crops (yams, taro) correlate with societies that stayed more egalitarian.

INSIGHT

Weapons Concentration Drives State Power

Monopolizable weapons let small groups seize power and create domination.
Improved arms repeatedly convert egalitarian groups into hierarchical ones.

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For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today?

In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today’s global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states.

Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path?

(Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025)

About Luke Kemp:

Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available.

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