In this podcast, Nate discusses global themes for 2024 including climate change, geopolitical tensions, a shift to a multipolar world, impacts of AI, systemic risks and wealth inequality, concerns about social discourse, ongoing central bank policies, and future challenges.
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Quick takeaways
Rising temperatures in 2024 due to climate change could reach two degrees Celsius, causing severe consequences in Europe and Asia, raising awareness and spurring action.
The ongoing shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order and geopolitical tensions, including battles in Ukraine and disruptions of global transportation routes, pose significant risks to global supply chains, oil markets, and financial stability.
Deep dives
Climate Change and its Impacts
2024 is predicted to witness a significant increase in global temperatures due to climate change. The combination of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, reduction in aerosol masking effect, and switching from La Nina to El Nino is expected to raise temperatures by another half a degree Celsius. This rise in temperatures could reach two degrees Celsius, causing severe consequences in Europe, the Asian subcontinent, and other regions. The potential effects of climate change are expected to raise awareness and spur action.
Increasing Cognitive Dissonance
As various predictions and expectations fail to materialize, cognitive dissonance among people is anticipated to increase. The disparity between the futures that individuals have attached their identities to and the actual unfolding events can lead to strange behavioral and vocal stories. If temperatures do rise to two degrees Celsius, individuals who previously denied or downplayed climate change may face a significant challenge in reconciling their beliefs with the tangible impacts of global warming.
Geopolitical Challenges and Choke Points
The world is experiencing a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order, which is contributing to geopolitical tensions. The ongoing battles in Ukraine between the US, NATO, and Russia may escalate, potentially leading to false flags or extreme reactions. Additionally, the availability and security of global transportation routes, such as the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz, pose significant risks. Disruptions in these critical choke points could have severe consequences for global supply chains, oil markets, and financial stability.
In this final Frankly of 2023, Nate outlines some global themes that are worth keeping an eye on in 2024. From climate change to domestic and global politics to an unstable financial system, world events continue to converge. How will the social fabric of our society respond as changes to our current way of life continue to grow? How do these seemingly isolated events interconnect and enhance each other? How will governments, businesses, and individuals respond to these circumstances as more people are propelled from the lives we’ve become used to and into an unfolding Great Simplification?
For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/51-systemic-themes-for-2024
To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/xgMv73iabjQ
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