Notes on the Week Ahead Irish Lessons
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Dec 2, 2024 Market dynamics are heating up with purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales indicating steady November demand. A closer look at unemployment data suggests payroll growth might bounce back after October's slump. The Fed's looming rate cut decision hinges on inflation indicators and new policies. Meanwhile, Ireland's elections showcase the perks of proportional representation and heightened voter engagement, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s political stagnation. The discussion highlights Ireland's progressive changes against the backdrop of U.S. polarization and investor strategizing.
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Upcoming Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut
- This week's market focus is on economic data like purchasing manager surveys, vehicle sales, and the jobs report.
- Investors are anticipating a potential December Fed rate cut, influenced by the CPI report and the new administration's agenda.
Policy Fog
- While the U.S. has navigated a cyclical storm, it now faces a 'policy fog' due to uncertainties surrounding the new administration.
- This uncertainty makes it difficult for investors to assess economic growth, profits, inflation, and interest rates.
Irish Elections and U.S. System Comparison
- David Kelly contrasts the U.S. election system with Ireland's, highlighting Ireland's proportional representation and shorter campaigns.
- He argues that Ireland's system fosters stability and has contributed to its economic and social progress.