Modern Wisdom #996 - Stephen J. Shaw - Why Population Collapse is Closer Than You Think
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Sep 20, 2025 In this insightful discussion, data scientist and filmmaker Stephen J. Shaw delves into the alarming trends of collapsing birth rates in Western countries. He explores potential causes, from cultural shifts to economic pressures, and questions whether this decline can be reversed. Shaw highlights the increasing challenges of parenthood and the generational differences surrounding family planning. He also examines antinatalist ideologies and the broader societal implications, urging a reevaluation of policies to support young families.
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Focus On Births, Not Total Headcount
- Learn the distinction between total headcount and birth rates; births drive long-term population momentum.
- Use birth-rate trends to plan policy, not just total population numbers.
Population Momentum Has Already Peaked
- Population peaked in 2013 and global headcount is already trending downward in future projections; many countries are below replacement.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is converging toward replacement too, so decline is truly global.
Average Parental Age Predicts Motherhood Rates
- The single strongest predictor of motherhood rates is a nation's average age of parenthood and how stretched that age-distribution is.
- With those factors you can predict motherhood and childlessness with over 90% accuracy.
