

Michael Mauboussin – Consilient Observations in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.127)
5 snips Mar 23, 2020
Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, dives deep into decision-making during financial crises. He discusses frameworks for navigating turbulent markets and the psychological effects of stress on investments. Drawing from historical insights, he explores the economic implications of pandemics. Mauboussin also examines market dispersions, the shift from public to private equity, and the importance of personal balance, including exercise, as vital during stressful times. Plus, there’s a fascinating comparison of player development in baseball versus other sports.
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Stress and Time Horizons
- Stressful periods like market crashes shorten time horizons, hindering long-term thinking.
- This is exacerbated by lack of predictability, reduced social outlets, and a perception of worsening conditions.
Asset Valuation Framework
- Analyze cash flows and discount rates to understand financial assets.
- Model various sales outcomes and refine them with value factors like volume and pricing.
DCF Modeling in Crisis
- Build a simple DCF model and calibrate it to pre-crisis market multiples.
- Zero out the first two years of cash flows to assess the impact on valuation.