BloombergNEF's Head of Wind Research, Oliver Metcalfe, joins Dana to discuss the wind sector in 2024. They talk about stable environment for offshore wind development, success of auctions, and challenges for Chinese turbine makers.
2024 is expected to be a positive year for wind installations with stability in offshore wind and increased demand for turbines from Chinese manufacturers.
Falling interest rates in 2024 are likely to boost new financing activity and investment in the wind sector, but Chinese turbine manufacturers might face strain on profitability due to low prices and negative margins.
Deep dives
Wind Sector in 2024
In this podcast episode, the head of wind research discusses key factors to watch for in the wind sector in 2024. He highlights the stability of offshore wind following last year's turbulence, the potential for low prices and margins for turbines from Chinese manufacturers, and the outlook for auctions in 2024. It is expected to be a positive year for wind installations, with the US and China leading the way. Additionally, the manufacturing sector is anticipated to catch up with increased demand, particularly in Europe. Overall, the wind industry is on an exciting growth trajectory.
Financing and Costs
The podcast also covers the financing and costs of wind turbines. While the industry faced challenges such as high inflation and rising interest rates in 2023, it still hit a new financing record outside of China. Falling interest rates in 2024 are expected to boost new financing activity and investment, leading to the biggest year yet for wind installations. Despite falling input costs, turbine makers are likely to keep turbine prices high to return to profitability. Chinese turbine manufacturers, on the other hand, are facing strain on profitability due to low prices and negative margins.
Auctions and Repowering
The podcast discusses the impact of auctions and repowering in the wind sector. Governments, such as the UK and the US, are making adjustments to improve auctions and off-take contracts to prevent auction flops. Repowering, which involves replacing older wind turbines with new ones, is expected to see record activity in Europe, driven by policy changes and streamlined permitting processes. However, some projects in the US still face the risk of cancellation, although the overall outlook for offshore wind remains positive.
On today’s bonus episode of the podcast, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Wind Research, Oliver Metcalfe, to discuss the things to watch for the wind sector in 2024.
Together they talk about whether this year will offer a more stable environment for offshore wind development, if auctions for such projects will see more success, and the challenges facing Chinese turbine makers.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.