Gold Market Transformation Drives Record Gains as Industry Consolidation Accelerates

Recording date: 1st December 2025

Olive Resource Capital has delivered exceptional performance in 2025, with Executive Chairman Derek Mcpherson and President/CEO/CIO Sam Pelaez reporting record third-quarter results during their December 1st "Compass" podcast discussion. The fund achieved 61.8% gains in Q3 and 113.5% year-to-date returns, driven primarily by the rising gold market and strategic portfolio positioning.

Despite generating $5.2 million in net income during Q3 against a market capitalization of just $7-8 million, management believes the share price trading around $0.07 significantly undervalues the fund's performance and asset base. This disconnect represents what Mcpherson characterizes as a meaningful opportunity for investors willing to recognize the fund's accomplishments.

The discussion emphasized Olive's investment philosophy of identifying companies undergoing transformation before markets fully price in the changes. This approach has proven successful with holdings like AngloGold Ashanti, which has delivered over 200% returns year-to-date, alongside other transforming companies including K92 Mining, Orion Resources, and CanX Resources.

A significant portion of the conversation analyzed Barrick Gold Corporation's announced plans to potentially spin out its North American assets, including Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the Fourmile project. The managers estimate this portfolio represents approximately 2 million ounces of annual production with an enterprise value of $40-50 billion.

While Newmont emerges as the most logical acquirer given existing joint venture partnerships, the analysis revealed surprising complications. Newmont currently trades at lower valuation multiples than Barrick despite producing 50% more gold, creating challenges for structuring an accretive transaction. However, the deal could provide Newmont with 33-50% production growth impossible to achieve through any other single transaction.

Management maintains conviction in continued commodity strength, supported by global liquidity expansion, central bank accommodation, and the recent end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening. They see no material macro developments disrupting their bullish thesis on commodities entering 2026.

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