Night Owls
Episode 38 (Interview with Daron Shaw Part 1 of 2)
Sep 28, 2024
Daron Shaw, a distinguished professor from the University of Texas and a top pollster, shares his insights into the world of polling and politics. He discusses the evolution of survey research, revealing how methodologies have shifted dramatically since the 1990s. Shaw also examines the impact of COVID-19 on voting practices and the rise of micro-targeting in campaigns. Additionally, he highlights California's transformation from Republican dominance to a Democratic majority, while addressing the political challenges facing Texas.
33:50
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Quick takeaways
- The transformation of polling practices since the 1990s, including significant declines in response rates and reliance on technology, has distorted public opinion representation.
- Innovations like Vote Cast are reshaping election strategies by improving data collection methods and enhancing forecasts amidst changing voter behaviors and preferences.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Survey Research Methodology
The landscape of survey research has changed significantly since the 1990s, primarily due to declining response rates and shifts in technology. In the earlier days, traditional methods like landline surveys yielded response rates of approximately 15-20%, whereas contemporary surveys often see rates drop to under 5%. This decline has been particularly notable among less educated white voters, who have become increasingly less likely to participate in surveys, distorting the overall representation of public opinion. Additionally, the transition from landline to mobile and online methodologies has introduced new challenges regarding the reliability and quality of polling data.
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