FICC Focus Macro Matters: Trade and Fed With Fed Watch Advisors’ Emons
Oct 23, 2025
Ben Emons, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Fed Watch Advisors, shares insights on US-China trade tensions and their ripple effects on inflation and employment. He discusses the potential impact of tariffs on growth and market behavior, while emphasizing gold's recent surge as a hedge against uncertainty. The conversation dives into the future of the Federal Reserve, its leadership, and how global factors are influencing asset allocation strategies, advocating for diversification into emerging markets and select sectors.
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Rare Earths Are A Strategic Vulnerability
- China controls heavy rare earths critical for U.S. defense, creating a strategic vulnerability.
- Tariff and export-control moves risk escalating trade tensions beyond typical economic disputes.
Uncertainty Is Hitting Sentiment Now
- Survey measures of uncertainty and expected prices already rose after the trade re-escalation.
- That uncertainty can dent hiring and slow the economy even if current headline growth looks strong.
Prioritize Watching Unemployment
- Watch unemployment as the Fed's priority may shift toward protecting jobs faster than fighting inflation.
- Prepare for potentially more aggressive cuts if unemployment rises materially.