Macro & Volatility™ #2: Dispersion - time to start paying attention
Jun 16, 2024
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The podcast delves into the dispersion trade's impact on VIX spikes, drawing parallels to past market volatility. It explores risks in leveraged short volatility trades and discusses hedging strategies like purchasing puts or investing in the VIX. The conversation also highlights opportunities in purchasing stocks strategically during market shifts.
Dispersion trade involves owning individual stock options and shorting index volatility, reflecting historical parallels in market conditions.
Being aware of risks in leveraged short volatility trades and considering volatility positions as a hedge against potential market downturns are crucial.
Deep dives
Similarities to Historical Market Conditions
The podcast discusses how the current equity and macro environment closely resemble conditions seen in early 2018, prior to significant volatility spikes like the 'Volmageddon' incident. These similarities include good economic data, strong earnings, and rising interest rates. The focus is on the dispersion trade, a strategy involving owning individual stock options while shorting index volatility, which is currently trading at historically low levels.
Risk of Leveraged Short Volatility Trades
The episode highlights the risks associated with leveraged short volatility trades, particularly in the context of the dispersion trade. A potential VIX spike triggered by market sell-offs could lead to amplified volatility moves due to the leverage involved in these trades. The discussion emphasizes the importance of being aware of these leveraged short kurtosis trades' impact on market conditions and suggests considering strategies like owning volatility positions as a hedge against potential market downturns.
In this episode, we look at what a dispersion trade is, how it might affect the VIX, and historical parallels that warrant attention but also point to potential upside rallies.
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