TED Talks Daily Is the US headed towards another civil war? | Barbara F. Walter
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Aug 14, 2023 Political scientist Barbara F. Walter delves into the alarming rise of extremism and the potential for a second civil war in the U.S. She reveals insights from a CIA task force on unexpected predictors of civil conflicts. The discussion addresses the erosion of democracy and how demographic changes may threaten governance. Walter emphasizes the role of identity politics, militia formation, and the importance of business efforts in fostering democratic stability. The podcast highlights urgent lessons from historical conflicts to help navigate these turbulent times.
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Predicting Civil War
- Civil wars are increasing globally, with over 250 since 1946.
- Two factors predict civil war: anocracy (partial democracy) and identity-based political parties.
Anocracy and Identity Politics
- Anocracy, a partial democracy, is a key risk factor for civil war.
- Identity-based political parties, not ideological ones, further increase this risk.
US on the Watchlist
- Barbara F. Walter served on a CIA task force analyzing global political instability.
- The US, classified as an anocracy after 2020, showed civil war risk factors.