The Impact of Rate Cuts on Markets & the 2024 Presidential Race
Sep 23, 2024
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Stephan Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander, analyzes the implications of the latest FOMC meeting and questions if the Fed's rate cut was a mistake. John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., shares his insights on equities while forecasting the 2024 S&P target. They discuss the challenges of predicting inflation and the potential impact of the rate cut on consumer and business investment. The conversation also highlights the influence of upcoming elections on economic trends and investor sentiment.
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are anticipated to influence business investments and lead to increased mergers and acquisitions ahead of the elections.
Despite strong consumer spending driven by past income growth, a declining savings rate may signal an impending slowdown in economic growth.
Deep dives
The Return of Bonds and AI in Development
Bonds have regained relevance in the current financial landscape, coinciding with an increased demand for application development. Businesses find themselves in need of new applications, which necessitates extensive coding efforts from developers. To facilitate this process, Watson X Code Assistant, an AI tool built on IBM's Granite Code Model, is introduced as a solution. This AI is designed to boost developer productivity significantly, allowing for quicker code generation and a more efficient development process.
Consumer Spending Trends
The main focus in the economy is on consumption, which remains strong despite a slowdown in income growth due to a cooling labor market. Consumers have been spending beyond their means, driven by a robust labor market from the previous year that supported income growth. However, a declining savings rate indicates that consumers may not sustain their spending as we approach the end of the year and early next year. A slowdown in consumer spending is expected, potentially lowering the growth rate down to around 4% for real GDP in the near future.
Impact of Federal Rate Cuts
As the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the immediate effects on various sectors are anticipated, particularly regarding business investments. There is uncertainty about short-term business behavior, as some companies may choose to hold off on investment until after the upcoming elections. However, a notable increase in mergers and acquisitions suggests that some businesses are eager to finalize deals in anticipation of potential regulatory changes. Overall, the Federal Reserve's actions, including a recent 50 basis point cut, signal a shift toward easing monetary policy to support economic growth.
Inflation Trends and Predictions
Inflation dynamics are currently marked by volatility, with predictions from economists indicating a potential softness in core inflation numbers. Recent data has shown fluctuations driven by volatile categories such as used car prices and airfares, complicating future inflation forecasts. There is a sense that previous assumptions about permanently low inflation may have been overly optimistic, and the latest benign readings do not necessarily signify victory over inflation. As expectations around inflation rise, the upcoming core PCE report is viewed with caution and could surprise the market based on minor variances in projections.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Damian SassowerSeptember 23rd, 2024 Featuring:
Stephan Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander, gives his analysis of the latest FOMC meeting and whether the Fed made a mistake with its rate cut
John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., gives his view on equities, 2024 S&P target, and whether investors should expect choppiness through the year
Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, with the latest on the presidential race