HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami recaps the 2025 housing market
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Dec 16, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead housing analyst, shares his insights on the 2025 housing market with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler. He discusses how increased inventory has helped restore market balance, allowing for higher sales despite historically low availability. Logan highlights improvements in mortgage rates due to tightening spreads and reflects on resilient home prices amidst changing dynamics. He compares current market behavior to 2008 and reveals unexpected trends, all while emphasizing his data-driven forecasting approach and the impact of macroeconomic factors.
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Inventory Restored Market Balance
- Inventory growth was the biggest positive in 2025 because more active listings created balance between buyers and sellers.
- That balance reduced multiple bids and eased price pressure even before rates fell below 6%.
Mortgage Spreads Drove Rate Relief
- Improving mortgage spreads drove rates near 6% despite the 10-year not breaking under 4% for long periods.
- Better spreads enabled a functioning housing market without Fed MBS purchases.
Real Prices Stayed Soft, Nominal Held
- 2025 marked the second year of real home prices falling versus inflation, but nominal pricing stayed around flat to low single-digit growth.
- Price firming late in the year reflected modest rate declines and the slope-of-the-curve dynamics.