This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump’s Putin ultimatum — Can he force an end to the war?
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Jul 17, 2025 Mark Galeotti, a British historian and expert in Russian security affairs, joins to discuss the shifting dynamics of Trump’s stance on the Ukraine conflict. They dive into Trump's recent support for arming Ukraine and his ultimatum to Putin, weighing its potential effectiveness. The conversation also explores the complexities of sanctions, their limited impact on Russia, and the growing political unrest within the country. With insights into global geopolitics, they evaluate the implications of Trump’s role as a potential mediator in this ongoing crisis.
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Trump's Shift on Ukraine Conflict
- Donald Trump's recent statement shows a shift, as he supports sending US weapons to Ukraine funded by NATO allies.
- He also threatens 100% tariffs on Russian goods if there is no peace progress within 50 days, signaling a tougher stance on Russia.
Limits of US-Russia Trade Sanctions
- Sanctions by the US on Russian trade are mostly symbolic given the low trade volume between the two.
- The real challenge is secondary sanctions on countries like China and India, who continue to buy Russian oil.
Potential Impact of US Weapons on Moscow
- Ukrainians have already struck Moscow with drones, demonstrating their reach.
- American weapons hitting Moscow could either harden Putin's resolve for war or provoke escalation, depending on his calculation.